With the unofficial first half ending now that it’s the all star break, some musings on the 2026 season.

After a 4-3 homestand, the Padres finished at .500 (48-48) and 3.5 games back of the last wild card spot. They are in wild card contention with eight teams currently in contention for the three spots (Cubs, Phillies, Marlins, Cardinals, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Padres and Nationals):

https://www.mlb.com/standings/wild-card?date=2026-07-12

The Padres already lost the season series to the Cubs, Phillies and Cardinals, haven’t played the Marlins yet, are tied with the Diamondbacks (3-3), lead the Pirates (2-1) and are losing to the Nationals (1-2). Miami is coming up on the 10-game road trip after the all star break so that will be a huge series for both teams.

But regardless, considering they lost three season series to other teams in the hunt already, it’s a tough climb to not only catch the teams in front but possibly have to finish in front of them because of losing the season series tiebreaker with these teams.

Realistically, AJ Preller won’t want to sell unless the team is completely out of it. If you think about the recent seasons where the team was in similar or worse situations at the trade deadline like the ill-fated 2015 season (“rockstar GM”, 50-53 and 6.5 games out of the wild card), 2021 (when the team had the epic second half collapse and they were 61-45 and leading the wild card by 5.5 games) or 2023 (Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and the huge expectations, the team was 52-55 at the trade deadline and 5 games out of the wild card), AJ still hung on to players on expiring contracts even though it made more sense to trade them.

Guys like Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy in 2015 and Josh Hader and Blake Snell in 2023 could have been traded for some prospects since those teams were flawed and were unlikely to make a playoff push (and still thinking they could make a playoff push was the main reason he gave as to why he didn’t trade them). 2021 was understandable since the Padres were in a playoff position comfortably, though some will argue that they should have added reinforcements then considering all the injuries that ended up happening to the starting pitching.

In 2016 with the Padres starting their rebuild (the whole thing about doing the rebuild now so the 2020s could be the decade of the Padres), they did start trading guys like James Shields and Matt Kemp.

While Manny Machado (last 30 games slashing .279/.372/.586 with 8 HR and 23 RBI) and Fernando Tatis Jr (last 30 games at .274/.326/.452 with 4 HR and 16 RBI) are hitting much better recently and the offense is starting to show life, the starting pitching still remains a huge question mark.

Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta remain on the Injured List (IL), both targeting August returns but hard to guarantee either comes back then and even if they do, what they’ll look like considering how long they’ve been out. Look at Michael King and when he came back late last season and Musgrove will have been out 22 months since he last pitched in October 2024.

At the same time, Walker Buehler in three starts in July has a 16.36 ERA in 11 innings pitched, getting pulled after two innings in his last start yesterday July 11, Randy Vasquez and Lucas Giolito were both struggling when they went on the IL and the Padres are using JP Sears, Griffin Canning, German Marquez and even Matt Waldron with extreme care, not letting them go through the lineup a third time, which is understandable considering how much better hitters are a third time through.

But starting pitching is hanging on barely and it’s not like you can trade for 2-3 starters to pair with Michael King and hopefully Pivetta and Musgrove come back.

So that screams sell to me, but selling guys with value who will be free agents after the season like Adrian Morejon (as much as it pains me to do it but I feel he’ll get a big contract in the offseason and not sure the Padres will be able to or want to pay what he’s looking for and being a closer elsewhere despite how much he likes it here), Ty France, Jason Adam (assuming he gets back healthy), Miguel Andujar and even Michael King since his contract contains an opt out after each year. Even guys like Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui considering they have opt outs and if teams would be willing to take them on since everyone always needs more pitching and relief pitching costs teams less to trade for.

But I would hang on to Mason Miller considering you have three years of control after this season unless some team is really willing to blow you away with their trade offer. I do get the Padres are more reliant than other teams on box office draw with their limited TV contract and Miller has become someone the fans look to see. So considering they won’t get what they gave up for him last year trading Leo De Vries (who continues to impress as the #2 overall prospect in baseball), it would definitely affect the team continuing to draw if they trade him so quickly.

Again I would get creative and see what teams are interested in unless the team goes on some hot run by this year’s trading deadline of August 3, similar to what they did in 2024 when they went 43-20 after the all star break. Because otherwise this team will end up where you hold onto parts, don’t make the playoffs and then just continue to have a high payroll and barren farm system. Then we end up with a similar season next year as we did this year, assuming the season happens with the impending lockout. At some point, it just seems like the team needs to do a reset as can reasonably be done, considering the core players you have and their contracts that would make it hard to do a complete rebuild and the fan uproar it would cause.

After this week’s homestand against the Braves and Dodgers, some musings:

• After the 4-5 road trip, coming home to start a 20 game in 21 day stretch with the first 13 against teams currently in the playoff picture (the Braves, Dodgers, Cubs and Dodgers again), you would have been happy with a 4-2 start against the Braves and Dodgers. Of course, you wouldn’t have thought it would be a sweep of the Braves and losing another series at home 1-2 against the Dodgers.
• The Dodgers continue to dominate the Padres and the two losses continue to show the issues this year’s team is having. The starting pitching isn’t getting any length and it seems to be an inning where it just gets away from while the offense can’t seem to get the big hit, a stark contrast to the Dodgers who seem to get the big hits when they need them.
• There was the 9 run sixth inning where Randy Vasquez gave up 7 (4 earned) of the runs in the inning in yesterday’s game. This was after the Padres started with Kyle Hart as an opener for two innings, so Vasquez couldn’t even make it through four full innings.
• Then in the bottom of the 7th inning, when the Padres had the bases loaded with one out, down 10-3 with Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado up to make things interesting, neither came through with Merrill striking out while Machado grounded into a force out. Whereas in the 9 run sixth inning, the Dodgers kept getting hits and moving the line.
• Then in today’s game, in the 5th inning, Michael King started by walking the #8 hitter Freeland, getting an out on a sacrifice bunt that ended up being a pop up, walking Ohtani, hitting Pages, walking Freeman to score a run (which should have been strike 3 on ball 4 that the Padres should have challenged since they had both challenges left) and then Betts hitting a two run double to make it 4-1.
• Meanwhile, in the bottom of the 8th, the Padres had runners on 1st and 2nd with one out and on the first pitch Miguel Andujar grounds into an inning-ending double play. Bottom of the 9th with a runner on 1st and 1 out, Fernando Tatis Jr grounded into a game-ending double play.
• Even if Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta come back, I’m not sure this assortment of starting pitching the Padres have will be able to continue to patch work through enough innings to not overburden the elite bullpen. But what can you realistically get on the trade market by trading what’s left of the farm system? I get AJ is always able to trade every year but does it really make sense to keep doing this and not develop some homegrown players that can come up to help the team?
• As far as the hitting, Tatis has been hitting more consistently since the beginning of June and Machado has been hitting better the past 10 days. Even if you trade for a decent hitter (and considering you want to trade for starting pitching, how much can you really offer?), can they really make that much of an impact? All the hitters we’ve traded over the past five years from pick-ups like Adam Frazier, Brandon Drury, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, Josh Bell and even Juan Soto have all struggled here the rest of the season after their trades. These guys all have added length to the lineup but we’d all like to see moves that jumpstart the offense the way we saw with Seattle last year when they added Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. But even in 2022, with Soto, Bell and Drury added, the team only went 29-27 down the stretch and we were still having the same complaints about the offense. So you pretty much need the current team to start hitting and anyone you would add is to complement it.

With the “Seattle” road trip (being the Brewers started as the Seattle Pilots for a year before moving to Milwaukee) ending tonight, some musings:

• Going into this six-game road trip against two tough teams (even though the Padres swept Seattle at Petco last month, Seattle was 14-4 against the Padres the last four seasons prior to this year and the Padres hadn’t won a road series in Seattle since 2018), I would have been happy with a 3-3 record. So to get a 4-2 record including a sweep of Seattle to complete the season sweep was awesome to get back to ten games above .500 at 28-18, last seen when the Padres were 19-9.
• Lucas Giolito looked good for the first five innings, being super efficient to get through in 59 pitches. But seemed like waiting too long in the top of the sixth as the Padres scored five runs and maybe being fatigued since this was his first major league start after four minor league warmups, his velo went down in the bottom of the sixth as he walked the first three batters. This ended up being his undoing as he left with 5+ innings, 78 pitches, 3 strikeouts and those 3 walks. So it didn’t end that well but a good start through the first five innings as he continues building up.
• To win a game 8-3 with the Mariners only getting one hit (since those three walks ended up scoring on another walk by Yuki Matsui and two sacrifice flies) while not using the high-leverage bullpen was pretty impressive. So kudos to Matsui (two innings) and Bradgley Rodriguez (two innings) for getting through the game without additional damage to rest Miller, Adam, Moreon and Estrada and leave the bullpen in good shape for three more games with the Dodgers before a day off. I’m assuming Miller will be available Monday even though he threw 34 pitches on Friday to get the 4 out save since he’s had two days off and Estrada will be available since he only pitched Saturday. They may try to avoid Adam and Morejon being both pitched back-to-back days on Friday and Saturday and pitching Monday would be three times in four days for both.
• Holy Sheets what a night for Gavin in this last game of the trip. He’s been pretty clutch this year including the winner on this trip in the second game against Milwaukee but going 3-3 tonight with 2 home runs, 4 RBI and 2 BB to get on base a career high five times really set the tone and gave the Padres breathing room they rarely have had this year with this offense. He’s been so big all year and really even since he came to the Padres starting in 2025. Speaking of this offense,
• It’s super surprising that the team is 28-18 considering the season Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill are having. All three got a base hit tonight, the first time the three of them each got a base hit since April 27. We’re still waiting for them to really get going and baseball is a cyclical sport, so we’ll see where these guys are at when it’s halfway through the season. Can’t expect the other guys (Sheets, France, Castellanos, Andjuar, etc) to continue to carry the team as they’ve been doing so we just gotta hope at least one of them gets going soon.

In Saturday’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals, Mason Miller ended the game by striking out 4 batters in the 9th inning to get the save. This game had some interesting facts since there were three instances where a batter struck out and made it to first base on a wild pitch (bottom 4th Manny Machado struck out versus Dustin May, bottom 7th Ty France struck out versus Justin Bruihl and then top 9th Yohel Pozo versus Mason Miller which lead to the 4 strikeouts in the inning) which in general rarely happens once in a game.

Then add in the fact that the last time a Padre struck out 4 in an inning was done in 2021 by now manager Craig Stammen. Lastly that this is more rare than I thought as Miller was the 108th time it’s been done, more rare than a no hitter, cycle or immaculate inning, which was also an achievement for Mason Miller as a Padre.

Even though it is rare to see a strikeout with a wild pitch for the batter to end up at first base, I was still surprised how rare it was. It made me curious if 5 strikeouts in 1 inning has ever been done but no that hasn’t happened in the majors, but it has happened in the minors, even as recently as 2024.

Some thoughts from the first homestand:

• It doesn’t seem Craig Stammen knows how to manage the bullpen as of yet, despite being a bullpen guy himself. In the second game of the season with a 2-1 lead and Estrada walking two straight guys, you leave him in to walk another guy, give up a slow infield hit to tie it up and then you wait until you have the lefty on lefty matchup to bring in Peralta to face Kevin McGonigle, who even though he’s a rookie in only his second game, had a four hit game in his first game and is on fire and you you don’t really have a book on him yet. I get that Mason Miller wouldn’t be available for a multi-inning save in the second game of the season (though he was available to do it today in the sixth game of the season?) but bring someone else in earlier when Estrada had lost control out there.
• Then in the fifth game of the season, down 4-3 in the 6th inning, after Kyle Hart had giving you two great innings, you leave him in and he gives up a double and a walk to start the inning. Instead of having another reliever start the inning (asking two innings out of Hart is already a great ask) or pulling Hart at this time, you leave him in. He does strike out the next batter before giving up another two more singles to drive in another run to make it 5-3. At that point you pull him but it’s the bases loaded and you’re putting Bradgley Rodriguez in a tough spot. Of course it doesn’t work out and the game gets out of hand then and becomes 8-3 and eventually a 9-3 loss.
• The offense continues to sputter, similar to last year. New coaching staff, new hitting coaches and still the same result. I thought with a new manager, you would see more creativity in the lineup. At least in today’s game, Stammen did tinker with the lineup a little bit, moving Manny down to cleanup and Laureano, who’s been the hottest hitter in the lineup, up to fifth. Laureano continued his hot ways, helping give some cushion with a two-run home run in the 8th to push a 3-1 lead up to 5-1 in what became a much needed 7-1 victory.
• It was great to see Nick Pivetta bounce back today and get through five innings with no runs, one hit, eight strikeouts and only two walks after the bad opening day start of three innings and six runs. Hoping this is the start of seeing him like last year as he continues to build up (only 82 pitches today).
• Thought the Padres would get off to a better start. The Tigers I figured would be a tough matchup with who they had for starting pitching but seeing them get swept by Arizona after playing the Padres and seeing how SF struggled against the Yankees in their opening series, I expected a little more and figured a .500 homestand. So 2-4 isn’t as bad, especially after yesterday’s poor 9-3 loss to SF. so we’ll see how the team looks after this road trip against Boston and Pittsburgh and finally getting to hit against Paul Skenes.

When it was posted yesterday morning on X.com by Matt Jones out of Kentucky that Craig Stammen was the new manager:

Random person just texted me

“Craig Stammen is the new Padres manager”

So I am going to break that even though I don’t know who that is

— Matt Jones (@KySportsRadio) November 6, 2025

My first reaction was this couldn’t be serious considering we hadn’t heard anything about him being a candidate and Stammen not having any managerial/coaching experience. There had been talk of a fourth mysterious candidate outside of Albert Pujols, Ruben Niebla and Nick Hundley so at that point it didn’t seem that far-fetched if he was the person.

Then the Padres announced it an hour later:

We have agreed to terms with Craig Stammen on a three-year contract to become our new manager. pic.twitter.com/sqEiUH5Z5h

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) November 6, 2025

Once the shock wore off and I started reading more coverage of it, I could see why he was the choice. All four candidates that were finalists didn’t have MLB managerial experience (granted Pujols had experience managing in the Dominican Republic league) so any candidate was going to need to learn on the job and have a good experienced staff around him.

And with how highly people speak of Stammen as a leader and people person and how he’s worked in the Padres organization since 2023, I could see AJ wanting someone who knew how the organization worked, its philosophy and how the players are (especially guys like Machado and Tatis who he’s played alongside) to maintain that continuity like they did with Mike Shildt.

Of course, the other side is maybe it’s time to do something different to break up that continuity because depending on how you look at it, it’s either a good or bad thing how the Padres have been lately. Good that since 2020 the Padres have had more success than any other time in franchise history (four playoff trips in six years) but bad in that it still hasn’t resulted in winning the World Series.

I don’t have as much of an uproar about it as other people since it wasn’t like we were realistically choosing him over Bruce Bochy (which would have been great as previously mentioned) so anyone was going to be new in this role. And superstars like Pujols generally haven’t translated well into managerial/front office roles since it’s hard for them to relate and understand the mindset of all players on the roster, since they can’t understand the difficulties that journeyman players have.

So that’s generally why you see a lot of managers being players who were role/bench guys become managers and head coaches. While pitchers haven’t really been managers before and he has no experience, that to me is the unconventional part of this hire, which I don’t mind as much to try something different. So I see it as combination of both something to be stable and unconventional which is on brand for AJ Preller.

There’s been plenty of guys with limited or no experience coaching and managing like Steve Kerr and JJ Redick in the NBA and Aaron Boone and Mike Matheny in MLB. Of course, there have been plenty of other spectacular failures with new guys, just look at Andy Green and Jayce Tingler that AJ hired. So it’s a crapshoot regardless of which way it goes but I’m open to seeing how it plays out with Craig Stammen before bashing the move already like others are doing.