Now that the Padres season is over after losing the NLDS 3-1 to the Milwaukee Brewers, some musings from this series:

• Whether Ty France’s fly ball that hit the roof would have been foul, caught in the field of play or a home run without hitting the roof, the biggest thing to me is the American Family Field ground rules with hitting the roof. I know other ballparks have similar rules but it doesn’t make sense to me that a ball that hits the roof has different rules in fair and foul territory. And it doesn’t make sense that the fair territory treats it as though it didn’t hit anything, when it clearly did hitting the roof which changed the ball’s trajectory, like if it hit the outfield wall. So I’m not sure why this wouldn’t just be considered a ground rule double or a dead ball since it’s not longer caught off the bat like a normal fly ball.
• I’m not sure why Randy Vasquez was on the roster while Walker Buehler was on the paternity list for the first two games of the series. I actually saw that as a genius move to have Vasquez available for two games but would have expected him to piggyback Robbie Ray (to have a righty after the lefty) in Game 1 or throw some innings in relief considering his good numbers against the Brewers, though he last faced them in 2025. Especially considering the Padres were only carrying 11 pitchers, the tenuous situation of the starters and not wanting to overuse the bullpen.
• I’m not surprised the Padres would have Morejon go out for a second inning in Game 1 even after giving up the lead. He’s done two innings many times this season and in the playoffs you still want to keep a deficit as is for you to have a chance to come back (which had potential with the Ty France roof ball). Just ended up being bad luck when he had a sore shoulder and didn’t pitch the rest of the series.
• Game 2 with Mason Miller trying to get a six out save also wasn’t surprising. He had three days off and it was the 2-3-4 hitters in the 8th inning so I can see why you go to your closer for six outs and other teams have done it in previous postseasons and this one as well. You would hope in the 9th inning he would just go right after the bottom of the lineup (especially when Gary Sanchez was the pinch hitter for the #9 spot) as bringing Jackson Chourio up is a bad recipe with Miller laboring at that point and Chourio being a good fastball hitter. Once the Padres got down 0-2 after losing this game this way, you just had a bad feeling for climbing out of this hole against a really good team.
• Kudos to Michael King for starting Game 2 and then closing out the last six outs of Game 3. That’s a difficult ask regardless of using a bullpen day to pitch instead and shows you what a gamer he is. It’s unfortunate that he couldn’t go longer in Game 2 as he was dealing with a no hitter for 4 2/3 innings before starting to run out of gas in the 5th. I don’t mind the move to bring in the bullpen in the bottom of the 6th when this happened in Game 2 because it’s the playoffs and King has had some blowup innings this season.
• With the season over (wait til next year again for us Padres fans), I would try re-signing King, Morejon and France. Morejon is probably going to be the toughest because it doesn’t make sense to sign him to closer money if Miller is going to continue to be the primary closer so some other team will offer him a really big deal to be their closer.
• We’ll see how long the lockout is and if the owners do get their salary cap. I would guess we won’t miss the whole season but will miss some time, maybe a month or two since I don’t see the sides really negotiating until February 2027 when spring training would start. So see you sometime next season and hopefully we get a full season.

With the trade deadline passing yesterday, some musings on the moves the Padres made:

• The trade for Robbie Ray and Casey Mize (with utility man Gage Workman also part of the Mize trade) adds starting pitching that the team desperately needs. It was fun seeing the “pitching chaos” the past couple of weeks with previous starting pitchers like Griffin Canning, Randy Vasquez, JP Sears and German Marquez doing different bulk inning roles throughout the game (Marquez pitching a 5 inning save was something that hadn’t been done in franchise history since the first season in 1969). However, you can’t really expect that to continue for 2 months especially when you’re banking on Michael King and Walker Buehler as the two true “starters” since both have been liable to big blowup innings this year that require the bullpen to come in and cover some innings.
• This is even more so needed with how uncertain it is with Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta coming back (especially after Pivetta left his rehab start early today with elbow tightness). I don’t think you can fully count on either considering Musgrove has been out for nearly 2 years and Pivetta is dealing with a tricky elbow issue so I would consider anything you get out of them a bonus. So adding two legit starting pitchers with the Padres bullpen gives them a good pitching staff for the rest of the season.
• I do think the Padres gave up a little too much in terms of giving up Joniel Hernandez and Kash Mayfield as part of the trades for Ray and Mize. Mayfield since he’s the Padres #2 prospect (and best pitching prospect) and Hernandez because he’s a 17-year-old shortstop they just signed as the top prospect for $1.4 million in their international signing period earlier this year. I get that Mayfield’s numbers haven’t been great this year and Hernandez is like a lottery ticket since he’s still young and far away but considering how barren the Padres farm system is and that they’re only getting these guys for rentals, I would hope the Padres can start getting more young guys through the system (like Jackson Merrill) to continually help each year and balance out the Padres bloated payroll. I don’t think it’s realistic even with the impending sale to all of a sudden expect the Padres to spend substantially more considering they have a top ten payroll in both CBT and actual cash spent and will be paying the tax this year. Would be great to get rid of some of these big contracts that aren’t worth what they’re getting paid but no one will take on those deals without prospects or the Padres eating a large portion of the contract which then leads us back to the same problem. A more balanced team would help the Padres from being so top-heavy and dependent on these highly paid players as we saw them struggle early this year and most of last year.
• The offense has been better since the beginning of June and it still goes back to the offense will go based on how the star players go and what I mentioned with being so top-heavy. It is how the team is constructed so can’t do anything about this season. We saw last year with the trade deadline additions of Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano and Freddy Fermin, that the offense still struggled towards the end of the year and into the NL Wild Card series against the Cubs as the top of the lineup (Fernando Tatis Jr, Luis Arraez and Manny Machado) struggled badly. So while it would have been nice to add another bat, the offense will really go based on how the current star batters go, like we saw tonight. I don’t remember the last time Tatis, Machado, Merrill and Xander Bogaerts all got hits in the 1st inning to drive in three runs, especially against a pitcher like Eduardo Rodriguez who has been having a great season (even if the Padres hit well against him last year).

With the unofficial first half ending now that it’s the all star break, some musings on the 2026 season.

After a 4-3 homestand, the Padres finished at .500 (48-48) and 3.5 games back of the last wild card spot. They are in wild card contention with eight teams currently in contention for the three spots (Cubs, Phillies, Marlins, Cardinals, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Padres and Nationals):

https://www.mlb.com/standings/wild-card?date=2026-07-12

The Padres already lost the season series to the Cubs, Phillies and Cardinals, haven’t played the Marlins yet, are tied with the Diamondbacks (3-3), lead the Pirates (2-1) and are losing to the Nationals (1-2). Miami is coming up on the 10-game road trip after the all star break so that will be a huge series for both teams.

But regardless, considering they lost three season series to other teams in the hunt already, it’s a tough climb to not only catch the teams in front but possibly have to finish in front of them because of losing the season series tiebreaker with these teams.

Realistically, AJ Preller won’t want to sell unless the team is completely out of it. If you think about the recent seasons where the team was in similar or worse situations at the trade deadline like the ill-fated 2015 season (“rockstar GM”, 50-53 and 6.5 games out of the wild card), 2021 (when the team had the epic second half collapse and they were 61-45 and leading the wild card by 5.5 games) or 2023 (Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and the huge expectations, the team was 52-55 at the trade deadline and 5 games out of the wild card), AJ still hung on to players on expiring contracts even though it made more sense to trade them.

Guys like Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy in 2015 and Josh Hader and Blake Snell in 2023 could have been traded for some prospects since those teams were flawed and were unlikely to make a playoff push (and still thinking they could make a playoff push was the main reason he gave as to why he didn’t trade them). 2021 was understandable since the Padres were in a playoff position comfortably, though some will argue that they should have added reinforcements then considering all the injuries that ended up happening to the starting pitching.

In 2016 with the Padres starting their rebuild (the whole thing about doing the rebuild now so the 2020s could be the decade of the Padres), they did start trading guys like James Shields and Matt Kemp.

While Manny Machado (last 30 games slashing .279/.372/.586 with 8 HR and 23 RBI) and Fernando Tatis Jr (last 30 games at .274/.326/.452 with 4 HR and 16 RBI) are hitting much better recently and the offense is starting to show life, the starting pitching still remains a huge question mark.

Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta remain on the Injured List (IL), both targeting August returns but hard to guarantee either comes back then and even if they do, what they’ll look like considering how long they’ve been out. Look at Michael King and when he came back late last season and Musgrove will have been out 22 months since he last pitched in October 2024.

At the same time, Walker Buehler in three starts in July has a 16.36 ERA in 11 innings pitched, getting pulled after two innings in his last start yesterday July 11, Randy Vasquez and Lucas Giolito were both struggling when they went on the IL and the Padres are using JP Sears, Griffin Canning, German Marquez and even Matt Waldron with extreme care, not letting them go through the lineup a third time, which is understandable considering how much better hitters are a third time through.

But starting pitching is hanging on barely and it’s not like you can trade for 2-3 starters to pair with Michael King and hopefully Pivetta and Musgrove come back.

So that screams sell to me, but selling guys with value who will be free agents after the season like Adrian Morejon (as much as it pains me to do it but I feel he’ll get a big contract in the offseason and not sure the Padres will be able to or want to pay what he’s looking for and being a closer elsewhere despite how much he likes it here), Ty France, Jason Adam (assuming he gets back healthy), Miguel Andujar and even Michael King since his contract contains an opt out after each year. Even guys like Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui considering they have opt outs and if teams would be willing to take them on since everyone always needs more pitching and relief pitching costs teams less to trade for.

But I would hang on to Mason Miller considering you have three years of control after this season unless some team is really willing to blow you away with their trade offer. I do get the Padres are more reliant than other teams on box office draw with their limited TV contract and Miller has become someone the fans look to see. So considering they won’t get what they gave up for him last year trading Leo De Vries (who continues to impress as the #2 overall prospect in baseball), it would definitely affect the team continuing to draw if they trade him so quickly.

Again I would get creative and see what teams are interested in unless the team goes on some hot run by this year’s trading deadline of August 3, similar to what they did in 2024 when they went 43-20 after the all star break. Because otherwise this team will end up where you hold onto parts, don’t make the playoffs and then just continue to have a high payroll and barren farm system. Then we end up with a similar season next year as we did this year, assuming the season happens with the impending lockout. At some point, it just seems like the team needs to do a reset as can reasonably be done, considering the core players you have and their contracts that would make it hard to do a complete rebuild and the fan uproar it would cause.

After this week’s homestand against the Braves and Dodgers, some musings:

• After the 4-5 road trip, coming home to start a 20 game in 21 day stretch with the first 13 against teams currently in the playoff picture (the Braves, Dodgers, Cubs and Dodgers again), you would have been happy with a 4-2 start against the Braves and Dodgers. Of course, you wouldn’t have thought it would be a sweep of the Braves and losing another series at home 1-2 against the Dodgers.
• The Dodgers continue to dominate the Padres and the two losses continue to show the issues this year’s team is having. The starting pitching isn’t getting any length and it seems to be an inning where it just gets away from while the offense can’t seem to get the big hit, a stark contrast to the Dodgers who seem to get the big hits when they need them.
• There was the 9 run sixth inning where Randy Vasquez gave up 7 (4 earned) of the runs in the inning in yesterday’s game. This was after the Padres started with Kyle Hart as an opener for two innings, so Vasquez couldn’t even make it through four full innings.
• Then in the bottom of the 7th inning, when the Padres had the bases loaded with one out, down 10-3 with Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado up to make things interesting, neither came through with Merrill striking out while Machado grounded into a force out. Whereas in the 9 run sixth inning, the Dodgers kept getting hits and moving the line.
• Then in today’s game, in the 5th inning, Michael King started by walking the #8 hitter Freeland, getting an out on a sacrifice bunt that ended up being a pop up, walking Ohtani, hitting Pages, walking Freeman to score a run (which should have been strike 3 on ball 4 that the Padres should have challenged since they had both challenges left) and then Betts hitting a two run double to make it 4-1.
• Meanwhile, in the bottom of the 8th, the Padres had runners on 1st and 2nd with one out and on the first pitch Miguel Andujar grounds into an inning-ending double play. Bottom of the 9th with a runner on 1st and 1 out, Fernando Tatis Jr grounded into a game-ending double play.
• Even if Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta come back, I’m not sure this assortment of starting pitching the Padres have will be able to continue to patch work through enough innings to not overburden the elite bullpen. But what can you realistically get on the trade market by trading what’s left of the farm system? I get AJ is always able to trade every year but does it really make sense to keep doing this and not develop some homegrown players that can come up to help the team?
• As far as the hitting, Tatis has been hitting more consistently since the beginning of June and Machado has been hitting better the past 10 days. Even if you trade for a decent hitter (and considering you want to trade for starting pitching, how much can you really offer?), can they really make that much of an impact? All the hitters we’ve traded over the past five years from pick-ups like Adam Frazier, Brandon Drury, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, Josh Bell and even Juan Soto have all struggled here the rest of the season after their trades. These guys all have added length to the lineup but we’d all like to see moves that jumpstart the offense the way we saw with Seattle last year when they added Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. But even in 2022, with Soto, Bell and Drury added, the team only went 29-27 down the stretch and we were still having the same complaints about the offense. So you pretty much need the current team to start hitting and anyone you would add is to complement it.

With the “Seattle” road trip (being the Brewers started as the Seattle Pilots for a year before moving to Milwaukee) ending tonight, some musings:

• Going into this six-game road trip against two tough teams (even though the Padres swept Seattle at Petco last month, Seattle was 14-4 against the Padres the last four seasons prior to this year and the Padres hadn’t won a road series in Seattle since 2018), I would have been happy with a 3-3 record. So to get a 4-2 record including a sweep of Seattle to complete the season sweep was awesome to get back to ten games above .500 at 28-18, last seen when the Padres were 19-9.
• Lucas Giolito looked good for the first five innings, being super efficient to get through in 59 pitches. But seemed like waiting too long in the top of the sixth as the Padres scored five runs and maybe being fatigued since this was his first major league start after four minor league warmups, his velo went down in the bottom of the sixth as he walked the first three batters. This ended up being his undoing as he left with 5+ innings, 78 pitches, 3 strikeouts and those 3 walks. So it didn’t end that well but a good start through the first five innings as he continues building up.
• To win a game 8-3 with the Mariners only getting one hit (since those three walks ended up scoring on another walk by Yuki Matsui and two sacrifice flies) while not using the high-leverage bullpen was pretty impressive. So kudos to Matsui (two innings) and Bradgley Rodriguez (two innings) for getting through the game without additional damage to rest Miller, Adam, Moreon and Estrada and leave the bullpen in good shape for three more games with the Dodgers before a day off. I’m assuming Miller will be available Monday even though he threw 34 pitches on Friday to get the 4 out save since he’s had two days off and Estrada will be available since he only pitched Saturday. They may try to avoid Adam and Morejon being both pitched back-to-back days on Friday and Saturday and pitching Monday would be three times in four days for both.
• Holy Sheets what a night for Gavin in this last game of the trip. He’s been pretty clutch this year including the winner on this trip in the second game against Milwaukee but going 3-3 tonight with 2 home runs, 4 RBI and 2 BB to get on base a career high five times really set the tone and gave the Padres breathing room they rarely have had this year with this offense. He’s been so big all year and really even since he came to the Padres starting in 2025. Speaking of this offense,
• It’s super surprising that the team is 28-18 considering the season Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill are having. All three got a base hit tonight, the first time the three of them each got a base hit since April 27. We’re still waiting for them to really get going and baseball is a cyclical sport, so we’ll see where these guys are at when it’s halfway through the season. Can’t expect the other guys (Sheets, France, Castellanos, Andjuar, etc) to continue to carry the team as they’ve been doing so we just gotta hope at least one of them gets going soon.

In Saturday’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals, Mason Miller ended the game by striking out 4 batters in the 9th inning to get the save. This game had some interesting facts since there were three instances where a batter struck out and made it to first base on a wild pitch (bottom 4th Manny Machado struck out versus Dustin May, bottom 7th Ty France struck out versus Justin Bruihl and then top 9th Yohel Pozo versus Mason Miller which lead to the 4 strikeouts in the inning) which in general rarely happens once in a game.

Then add in the fact that the last time a Padre struck out 4 in an inning was done in 2021 by now manager Craig Stammen. Lastly that this is more rare than I thought as Miller was the 108th time it’s been done, more rare than a no hitter, cycle or immaculate inning, which was also an achievement for Mason Miller as a Padre.

Even though it is rare to see a strikeout with a wild pitch for the batter to end up at first base, I was still surprised how rare it was. It made me curious if 5 strikeouts in 1 inning has ever been done but no that hasn’t happened in the majors, but it has happened in the minors, even as recently as 2024.

Some thoughts from the first homestand:

• It doesn’t seem Craig Stammen knows how to manage the bullpen as of yet, despite being a bullpen guy himself. In the second game of the season with a 2-1 lead and Estrada walking two straight guys, you leave him in to walk another guy, give up a slow infield hit to tie it up and then you wait until you have the lefty on lefty matchup to bring in Peralta to face Kevin McGonigle, who even though he’s a rookie in only his second game, had a four hit game in his first game and is on fire and you you don’t really have a book on him yet. I get that Mason Miller wouldn’t be available for a multi-inning save in the second game of the season (though he was available to do it today in the sixth game of the season?) but bring someone else in earlier when Estrada had lost control out there.
• Then in the fifth game of the season, down 4-3 in the 6th inning, after Kyle Hart had giving you two great innings, you leave him in and he gives up a double and a walk to start the inning. Instead of having another reliever start the inning (asking two innings out of Hart is already a great ask) or pulling Hart at this time, you leave him in. He does strike out the next batter before giving up another two more singles to drive in another run to make it 5-3. At that point you pull him but it’s the bases loaded and you’re putting Bradgley Rodriguez in a tough spot. Of course it doesn’t work out and the game gets out of hand then and becomes 8-3 and eventually a 9-3 loss.
• The offense continues to sputter, similar to last year. New coaching staff, new hitting coaches and still the same result. I thought with a new manager, you would see more creativity in the lineup. At least in today’s game, Stammen did tinker with the lineup a little bit, moving Manny down to cleanup and Laureano, who’s been the hottest hitter in the lineup, up to fifth. Laureano continued his hot ways, helping give some cushion with a two-run home run in the 8th to push a 3-1 lead up to 5-1 in what became a much needed 7-1 victory.
• It was great to see Nick Pivetta bounce back today and get through five innings with no runs, one hit, eight strikeouts and only two walks after the bad opening day start of three innings and six runs. Hoping this is the start of seeing him like last year as he continues to build up (only 82 pitches today).
• Thought the Padres would get off to a better start. The Tigers I figured would be a tough matchup with who they had for starting pitching but seeing them get swept by Arizona after playing the Padres and seeing how SF struggled against the Yankees in their opening series, I expected a little more and figured a .500 homestand. So 2-4 isn’t as bad, especially after yesterday’s poor 9-3 loss to SF. so we’ll see how the team looks after this road trip against Boston and Pittsburgh and finally getting to hit against Paul Skenes.