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Rainy Comeback

Posted on by Paul

After the third rain delay in four road games on the trip (which even for me watching at home throws off the schedule as I try watching the game and then doing other things such as going to the SDFC game on Saturday night), tonight’s game looked like one of those dog day games that gets away from you.

Lefty on the mound, two rain delays, Nick Pivetta not having his best stuff (not to mention tipping his pitches) and then being down 3-0 in the top of the 8th wasn’t looking too promising.

But after Fernando Tatis Jr and Mike Shildt were ejected (Tatis’ first career MLB ejection), Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts both came through with clutch two-out hits to each drive in two runs and give the Padres their first lead 4-3.

Ironically, the strike two call on a pitch low in the zone that Tatis and Shildt argued about was a strike but home plate umpire Adrian Johnson’s low strike call had been pretty inconsistent all night for both teams. Sometimes he was calling them a strike, other times not as on a 3-2 count to Jorbit Vivas in the 3rd inning, a pitch from Nick Pivetta at the bottom of the zone was called a ball. That lead to a walk and of course the next batter Trent Grisham hit a two-run home run.

The inconsistency of it (Robert Suarez actually benefited in the 9th on a pitch low in the zone called a strike) is what drives players and managers crazy so I get why Tatis was upset (he had several low strike calls in his four at bats) and Mike Shildt was going to defend his player no matter, that’s why his players love him and play so hard for him.

In this case Manny and Xander came through to pick the team up and lead to an impressive 4-3 comeback victory. I’ve mentioned before about not having Manny and Xander bat back to back in the 3-4 hole since it leads to too many strikeouts and double plays so credit to both players for coming through in clutch situations today.

That’s really the idea with having a top-heavy team with Tatis, Arraez, Manny, Xander, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth, the idea being that you have enough star power that even when one or two players are in a slump (and all baseball players go through slumps with how difficult the sport is), that the other ones can pick them up.

These past two games are an example as Tatis has gone 0-9 but with Xander stepping up the past two games, the Padres have won both. Of course, in the past we’ve seen it where if Tatis is struggling, the other guys aren’t coming through or struggling themselves, especially with Manny and Xander 3-4. So to see this happening today is what we’re expecting and why Xander was brought here at $25+ million a year and something we hope to see more of the rest of the season.

Ending the Season Series with the Cubs

Posted on by Paul

Good way to end the season series with the Chicago Cubs tied 3-3 as you never know how important this can be at the end of the season and making the playoffs. It’s always funny how the MLB schedule is to where you face a team twice in the first month and then don’t see them again until possibly the playoffs.

It was only two years ago when the Padres finished two games out of the playoffs (don’t get me wrong that 2023 team had a whole bunch of other problems) and finished 6-7 against Arizona that year, including losing 3 out of 4 in August to end the season series, as well as 3-4 against the Cubs, both teams with better records than them that year (Arizona would get the final playoff spot). So their path to the playoffs was even more difficult since they lost the season series to the two teams right above them as they tried making the late run.

So when it comes down to the end and playoff tiebreakers, with the 4-2 win today over the Cubs, the Padres won’t lose that tiebreaker if they happen to be in the playoff hunt and finish tied with the Cubs. I know it’s way early but that’s where these types of games count.

That’s why it doesn’t make sense to me with having Manny and Xander bat 3-4 even if it’s a lefty starting pitcher on the mound as Mike Shildt continues to do last night and today. Yesterday’s 2-1 loss was a golden opportunity to win considering Shota Imanaga was on the mound for the Cubs and the Padres pitching was able to go toe to toe for 9 innings. Not many times where you can win a low-scoring game against their ace pitcher, so it compounds it when you have Manny and Xander come up with the bases loaded and 1 out and end up getting no runs like what happened in the bottom of the third. If one of them comes through (or someone else batting in the lineup between them), the game may break wide open like what happened in Shota’s last start against the Rangers where he goes only 76 pitches in 5 innings giving up 5 earned runs.

And then there’s the relievers he keeps using in situations that aren’t the best. I figured the way he’s been using Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui earlier this season where the team had comfortable leads, was way behind or when it’s earlier in the game like the 5th or 6th inning would be how he would continue to use them based on their track record last year. There’s a big need in those situations (we can only remember Enyel De Los Santos last year and how often he would blow big leads or make the deficit even larger) but the past two days have left me scratching my head.

Yesterday putting Matsui in the 10th inning with the ghost runner on, I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who had a bad feeling about it. Credit to Matsui for getting out of the inning with just the one unearned run after he gave up the leadoff triple to Nico Hoerner to score the ghost runner and then getting the next three guys out (short flyout and two strikeouts) but the damage was already done.

And then today he pulled Pivetta after 91 pitches and 6 innings, going to Estrada in the 7th which is par for the course in a close game with the bullpen. However in the 8th with Jason Adam down today (understandably after going the past two days), he went to Wandy with a 3-1 lead after the Padres added on one run in the bottom of the 7th and again I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who was a little worried. Wandy proceeds to give up a home run to Pete Crow-Armstrong to make 3-2 and then give up a 2 out double to Ian Happ bringing red hot Kyle Tucker up to bat as the go ahead run. He did end up striking out Tucker but way too close for comfort.

Shildt does get the most out of his team (feels like the team would run through a wall for him like the St. Louis Cardinals postgame speech) so I’m sure that’s part of it. But when you see the same guys not coming through in the same situations over and over again, at some point you have to realize that’s not the best situation for them.

Sweeping the Rockies

Posted on by Paul

As they always say baseball is a long season as it was only five days ago after game two of the Athletics series last Tuesday April 8 that it was all doom and gloom as Jackson Merrill was put on the IL that morning and then both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth would leave the game early with injuries.

This is not to mention the run of shaky starting pitching that started with the Chicago Cubs series and culminated with Cease giving up 9 runs in the loss that Tuesday night.

But with a day game the next day missing Tatis, Cronenworth and Merrill, the team came through as Vasquez did what was needed (5 innings of 1 run ball and turning it over to the high-leverage arms) and the lineup was able to piece together enough runs for a 2-1 win.

Of course, coming home to the Colorado Rockies for any team is usually a good thing but we know how the Padres have struggled against the Rockies recently (31-33 from 2021-2024), not to mention that Jake was put on the IL Friday morning and is expected to miss something with a rib fracture.

But maybe not having Charlie Blackmon anymore helped as the Padres did several things in this series worth highlighting:

As they always say baseball is a long season but it’s been exciting seeing what the Padres have done so far to start this season.

First Road Series in the Windy City

Posted on by Paul

After a great top of the 1st inning to take a 3-0, you had to feel this game would be different in a good way from the first two games of the series when the offense could only score a run in each game.

It was definitely different but in a wild way as things quickly unraveled in the bottom of the inning when Kyle Hart had no control, Logan Gillaspie came in and balked in two runs and then gave up a two run homer in the 2nd. This looked like one of those long getaway days already being down 7-3 heading into the top of the 3rd.

But credit to Logan Gillaspie for pitching a total of 4 innings and the rest of the bullpen (Morejon, Estrada, Adam and Suarez) all holding it down from there as the Cubs wouldn’t score again after that homer in the 2nd. The Padres were able to chip away and take the lead in the 9th, even if it was on an error by Justin Turner at 1st that should have been an inning-ending double play.

Great comeback win and reminiscent of what last year’s team did where it always battled and as Mike Shildt likes to call them the “grit squad”. It takes the pitching to hold up as it did today to make the comeback and you can’t say enough good things about what they were able to do as the offense had many chances (3 for 16 with RISP oof) and could have come back many times earlier in the game.

A couple of things:

  • I still don’t know what the two balks are that Gillaspie did in the 1st inning. These are the times it would be good for the ump to get on the mic to explain what they’re doing.
  • Regardless of a righty or lefty pitcher, seems like the top of the lineup should stay the way it was today:
    1. Tatis
    2. Arraez
    3. Machado
    4. Merrill
    5. Cronenworth
    6. Bogaerts

I can see switching Cronenworth and Bogaerts so it alternates right-left and I get the concerns about Cronenworth against lefties but having Machado and Bogaerts back to back has lead to many wasted scoring opportunities where guys are on 1st and 2nd and no outs and then we end up with 3 outs and no runs (strikeouts, double plays, etc).

I see having Merrill in between as a way to split up Machado and Bogaerts both because of them being righties (having Merrill in between gives the pitcher a different look from the other side), Merrill’s speed to beat out ground balls (in reality both Machado and Bogaerts aren’t quick so any ground balls have a high chance for a double plays) and Merrill has shown a big knack for being clutch in his 1+ year in the majors so far.

So I would keep them alternating regardless of who the pitcher is. Merrill has shown enough against lefties where he doesn’t need to be moved down in the lineup just because its a lefty. As far as the rest of the lineup, Sheets has been pretty productive but holding out comment to see how the others like Heyward, Gurriel and the catchers do until we get a little further into the season.

Jackson Merrill’s Extension

Posted on by Paul

With today’s 5-2 win over the Cleveland Guardians to wrap up the first homestand of the season and a 7-0 record, the big news of the day was the Padres and Jackson Merrill announcing agreement on a 9 year $135 million extension.

There have been murmurs recently about how the Padres started discussion on an extension prior to Jackson’s rookie year (similar to what the Brewers did with Jackson Chourio) and have tried again since then.

But even though Jackson said he was looking for a fair deal, I wasn’t expecting a deal to happen this quickly. Mainly because the Padres may have missed the boat with the great year that Jackson had (when he should have been the NL Rookie of the Year) and I wouldn’t be surprised if any player after that type of rookie season would want to bet on themselves to get a larger payday when they could hit free agency after 6 full years.

Not to mention all that’s going on with the Padres ownership and questions about the team’s long-term finances (along with the many big contracts already on the books) so the chances of a Jackson Chourio team-friendly deal seemed unlikely or was going to be really expensive.

Figured they might talk again after this season, with money coming off the books (like Eric Hosmer’s last $13 million this season) and currently being over the second CBT threshold.

So it was a pleasant surprise waking up this morning and getting texts from family and friends about the news breaking of the 9-year, $135 million deal that starts next season. Even with the escalators and options to go possibly up to 10 years and $204 million, it’s still a great deal to be able to lock him up long term.

You’re getting 5 of his free agency years from 2030-2034 (if he didn’t sign an extension, he would become a free agent after the 2029 season) which would be his prime free agency years. Most teams signing players to 10-15 year contracts are basing it on getting most of the production in the first 5-7 years and then you’re just living with a large contract towards the end of the player’s career, like Albert Pujols or Justin Upton with the Angels.

So in this case, not only are you getting what you expect is great production from Jackson during the prime free agency years but also at a good deal at $15-$20.4 million per year when you think about where contracts are currently and how much you you’ll be paying in 5 years. I mean look at some of the deals other guys were getting recently. Cody Bellinger got a three-year, $80 million deal prior to 2024 and Tommy Edman got a five-year, $74 million this past offseason so you can see the salaries for veteran players who play centerfield get pretty high.

Of course, with any big contracts, even with younger players, there’s the risk that the player may not live up to it. I remember the Padres trying to do something on a much smaller scale with Nick Hundley, Corey Luebke and Cameron Maybin back in 2012 so they could buy out their arbitration years at much lower salaries if they became stars as they showed potential to. Of course, none of them became big stars so it wasn’t the bargain the team hoped for. But to me, the risk is worth it because as the baseball economies go up, even if he doesn’t pan out (which I would shocked at just seeing how he played in his rookie year), it’s not that large of a contract especially as MLB salaries keep going up (which now top on average $5 million for a season).

So all in all, really happy Jackson Merrill and the Padres were able to come to an agreement on this extension and excited that he’ll be a core part of this team until at least 2034.

Opening Series Thoughts

Posted on by Paul

With the Padres sweeping the Braves to start the season 4-0 for the second time in franchise history (1984 being the other year when the Padres went to the World Series for the first time), some thoughts from this weekend:

  • Luis Arraez being 0-13 to start the season was not on my Bingo card. He does have one walk so far and did start off 0-10 in his first two games last year.
  • Gavin Sheets continues to have good at bats as he was in Spring Training.
  • Xander and Jake had some nice hits this series (Jake’s HR to take the lead and ultimately be the difference is typical Jake coming up with big hits) but the strikeouts by both (Jake 6 strikeouts in 13 ABs and Xander 5 in 11 ABs) is reminiscent of last year.
  • Day games in April are pretty cold (only one true night game this weekend on Friday) and at least for me, preferable to summer day games when the sun is beating down on you pretty much the whole game on the first base side unless your seats are far back under the overhang. I get the Padres were on the first base side at Jack Murphy/Qualcomm Stadium but wonder why they didn’t put the home dugout on the third base side considering that side is pretty much in the shade the whole time during day games.
  • For the jersey geeks like myself, during this homestand the home pinstripes and the Sunday camos are back to using the larger names on the back with the smaller arch like in 2023 and earlier after the whole 2024 jersey fiasco. If you look on the Padres Instagram, you can see this year’s camo jersey vs last year’s to see the difference. But interestingly, this year’s City Connect jersey still has the same smaller lettering and larger arch like last year. Maybe Nike doesn’t want to update the City Connect since this is the last year of using them? Which seems weird since it doesn’t seem that difficult to make the letters bigger and stitch them on like the other jerseys since they have to do them at a minimum for new players on the team.

Opening Day Musings

Posted on by Paul

Opening day is always a great day. Not only is everyone starting 0-0 (well except the Dodgers and Cubs since they played in Japan the week before) but it’s the first time back in the ballpark since late last year so there’s a freshness to it, especially with seeing what’s different at Petco Park since the last time I was here.

What really hits it for me is when you first hear the roar of the crowd on Opening Day, in this case when Jackson Merrill singled in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado with two outs in the bottom of the 1st.

That roar really reminded me why I love baseball and look forward to going to games in person. Not only is Petco a great place to watch the game but there’s the energy in the stands that you can’t match watching it at home.

With that said, here are some thoughts from around the ballpark on the first day:

  • Still long lines to get into the team store even with the renovation. Granted it was Opening Day (and there usually was a line before the game the past few seasons when there were capacity crowds) but we tried going about 45 minutes before the game and the line snaked outside towards the Hall of Fame. Being that we wanted to get some food and catch the pregame ceremonies we decided to try again after the game when usually you can get in right away. However, going after the game the line was even longer so we just decided to try again on Friday.
  • The new Mini Donut Company stand (section 107 right next to Seaside Market) is definitely worth trying if you’re into donuts. They have 5 different flavors (churro, powered sugar, sprinkles with white frosting, sprinkles with chocolate frosting and plain) and were available in 6 and 12 packs.
  • The walkway where the Lexus Club and Padres Authentics stand is a major bottleneck after the game ends. Maybe because there’s also a merch stand and restrooms here too but it gets really bottlenecked if you’re on the first base side trying to make it over to the Western Metal Building after the game (such as going to the team store) or if you’re on the third base side trying to make it over to the Home Plate Gate. I’ve put in the survey to the Padres about this but if you can avoid going this way after the game (i.e. if you’re on the first base side and just want to exit go out towards the Home Plate or Park Blvd Gate or if you do want to go to the team store from the first base side walk around through right field and through Gallagher Square) as it takes a bit of time to get through.

But overall a great time, especially with the Padres coming back to win. Gavin Sheets continuing his Spring Training home run renaissance really started it in the bottom of the 7th as the place erupted when the ball cleared straight away center field as Michael Harris II tried jumping for it.

Will be back at the ballpark again at Tony Gwynn Opening Day and will post if there are any other musings.