mlb postseason

Wild Card Series 2026 Musings

Posted on by Paul

With the Padres winning the Wild Card Series over the Chicago Cubs, some musings from the series:

  • The series went as well as the Padres could have hoped for. In Game 1, Michael King throwing 7 innings of one hit ball, offense building a big lead, Yuki Matsui pitching the 8th inning (he’s been good this year but didn’t pitch in the postseason last year so good to give him a softer landing spot for his first postseason action) and then having Joe Musgrove return for the first time in two years and close it out (even if it got a little dicey with him loading the bases) set it up to hae a pretty rested bullpen for Game 2.
  • Nick Pivetta was only able to go 3 1/3 innings in Game 2 and struggled in the 3rd and 4th innings, but this was where you were able to fully take advantage of the bullpen. Can’t ask for much more than what the bullpen did covering 5 2/3 innings with no runs, two hits and one walk.
  • The offense scoring first in both games was huge as it gave them the momentum to start. The Padres are much better at home (51-30 vs 40-41 during the regular season) where the team thrives off the crowd and getting off to quick starts in both games helped amplify that.
  • Speaking of the Wild Card Series roster, was surprised they went with 15 position players and 11 pitchers. I get that it’s a short series but thought they might carry 12 in case they needed long relief for the three games. Even though I heard rumblings of Musgrove, still was quite shocked to see him on the roster, though replacing Vasquez makes sense now since he had pitched Sunday and threw 68 pitches and 6 innings, considering Robbie Ray and/or Walker Buehler could cover the middle innings. You figure you wouldn’t use him as much in this round and he’d be rested and more available for the Division Series if the Padres advanced.
  • Was great to see Musgrove out there. Even though he looked a little rusty and/or had the nerves, he was still getting his fastball up to 96-97 mph like before. Hopefully he’s recovering well and they can deploy him for an inning (maybe even as an opener) during this playoff series.
  • Since I guessed the roster for the Wild Card Series, I’ll do it again for the Division Series against the Brewers and see the roster as follows:
    • Pitchers (12): Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray, Jason Adam, Yuki Matsui, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, David Morgan, Bradgley Rodriguez, Randy Vasquez and Joe Musgrove. Since they only went with 11 in the last round, I see them adding just one more this time to carry all three catchers again and with a max of two games in a row before a day off and the bullpen being not used heavily in the past week. Starting from Sunday 9/27 of the last day of the season where only Vasquez and Griffin Canning pitched until Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday 10/3, each pitcher will have only thrown once in the past six days.
    • Position Players (14): Fernando Tatis Jr, Jackson Merrill, Dustin Harris, Miguel Andujar, Austin Hays, Ethan Salas, Freddy Fermin, Luis Campusano, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Ty France, Manny Machado, Gavin Sheets and Jase Bowen. This one was a little tougher as I struggled with the last spot since I see them carrying three catchers as mentioned above. Austin Hays has been hitting lefties well and Miguel Andujar has the veteran experience, even if he’s just coming back from injury. I see both being the right hand platoon for DH as well as a pinch hitter for Salas when a lefty pitcher comes in, especially since the Brewers figure to carry 3-4 relievers from their end of season active roster. So I ended up including both Hays and Andujar over Samad Taylor as a result.
  • Should be a fun series as the flukey nature of playoff baseball continues so again looking forward to seeing how this all plays out.

End of the 2026 Regular Season Musings

Posted on by Paul

Now that the Padres 2026 regular season has ended, some musings:

  • On Saturday September 05, 2026, the Padres had lost 8 of 11 games (74-68) and were the first team out of the playoffs, 0.5 game back of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the last playoff spot (the 6 seed), 6 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies for the 5 seed and 6.5 games back of the Chicago Cubs for the 4 seed with 20 games left. From the trade deadline at the beginning of August when the Padres were playing well, my hope was the Padres would be able to get to being 4 games up on the Diamondbacks with the last 3 games left of the regular season against them so it didn’t come down to a playoff series before the playoffs to get in. So I would have been happy then just knowing the 6 seed was locked down to play Atlanta (seemed unlikely then that Atlanta would catch the Dodgers for the 2 seed).
  • Once it got to this point with 20 games left, trying to get to 4 games up seemed pretty daunting so I was just hoping they would continue to have a chance to get into the playoffs. To end the season with 91 victories, going 17-3 in the last games where they ended up with the 4 seed above the Cubs and Phillies was quite impressive. Clinching in LA at Dodger Stadium by winning 2 out of 3 and then having the Cubs and Phillies continue to struggle so all the Padres had to do was win 1 out of the last 3 games against the Diamondbacks for the 4 seed and doing it on the second to last game on Saturday was great and not something I saw coming.
  • Being the 4 seed to have the home field advantage is big since the Padres play much better at home (51-30 vs 40-41 on the road) and you make the Cubs have to travel from the east coast being they had to play Sunday in Tampa Bay with the nor’easter storming through Boston and the Northeast. This is much better than the Padres having to travel and of course great for me and Padres fans since we get to pack Petco Park.
  • Seeing the offense play like it’s supposed to in the second half of the season was great. Fernando Tatis Jr has been playing great since he hit his first home run on May 30, Ty France has been a revelation all year and we’re starting to see Jackson Merrill hit more consistently in the second half. As well, guys like Dustin Harris and Samad Taylor have provided a jolt to this offense and really buy in to keeping the line moving with the next batter up. It’s no longer painful to watch the offense as we saw in the first two months where they would scuffle the whole game before hitting a big home run in the 8th or 9th inning.
  • Ethan Salas is showing why he’s a top prospect though he still is a rookie and will make some mistakes as expected, like trying to do the backdoor throw to first to get Corbin Carroll out yesterday in the 2nd inning that lead to Geraldo Perdomo scoring and tying the game. I’m expecting him to continue to learn and take these lessons to heart especially with the stakes higher in the postseason.
  • For the Wild Card Series roster, since its only a three game series, I see them carrying 14 position players and 12 pitchers. At the end of the season they had 15 position players and 13 pitchers with the expanded 28 player roster so I see the roster as follows:
    • Pitchers (12): Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Walker Buehler and Robbie Ray as potential starters (Buehler and Ray for potentially game 3 whether one or piggybacking both), Jason Adam, Yuki Matsui, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, David Morgan, Wandy Peralta, Bradgley Rodriguez and then the last one I see as Randy Vasquez. Even though Vasquez pitched Sunday with 6 innings and 68 pitches, I can see him throwing an inning or long relief on Wednesday or Thursday. Maybe Joe Musgrove is an option since it’s a short series so if you don’t use him it doesn’t affect you as much. But I wonder what lane would be good to use him considering he hasn’t pitched in two years, maybe as an opener in game 3?
    • Position Players (14): Fernando Tatis Jr, Jackson Merrill, Dustin Harris, Samad Taylor, Austin Hays, Ethan Salas, Freddy Fermin, Luis Campusano, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Ty France, Manny Machado, Gavin Sheets and for the last spot Jase Bowen. Considering the need to cover the outfield late, I see them valuing the defense of Bowen over Sung-Mun Song and his infield defense. Especially with Jake bouncing around the infield lately to have a feel again for all the positions so they can move Jake around like they would Song.
  • Starting pitching is still the biggest concern for me considering that Casey Mize struggling mightily before going on the IL yesterday, Michael King struggled in his last start against the Dodgers and both him and Buehler can lose it pretty quick and have a blow up inning as we’ve seen several times this season. As well, Nick Pivetta is still coming back from injury (he could be like Musgrove in 2024 and pitching on borrowed time) and Robbie Ray has been more like what you would expect from him with giving up a lot of walks and not getting a lot of strikeouts so it’s always dicey with him out there. We just need the starting pitching to get enough length so we’re not going to the bullpen super early considering how great the bullpen is and how the offense has been playing for the second half of the season. I know the postseason they’ll have a quick hook but getting quality length from the starters will be huge like 2024 where the starters except Dylan Cease gave the team a chance each game.
  • It’s postseason baseball so it can be flukey and fun so looking forward to seeing how this all plays out.