All Star Break 2026 Musings
With the unofficial first half ending now that it’s the all star break, some musings on the 2026 season.
After a 4-3 homestand, the Padres finished at .500 (48-48) and 3.5 games back of the last wild card spot. They are in wild card contention with eight teams currently in contention for the three spots (Cubs, Phillies, Marlins, Cardinals, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Padres and Nationals):
https://www.mlb.com/standings/wild-card?date=2026-07-12

The Padres already lost the season series to the Cubs, Phillies and Cardinals, haven’t played the Marlins yet, are tied with the Diamondbacks (3-3), lead the Pirates (2-1) and are losing to the Nationals (1-2). Miami is coming up on the 10-game road trip after the all star break so that will be a huge series for both teams.
But regardless, considering they lost three season series to other teams in the hunt already, it’s a tough climb to not only catch the teams in front but possibly have to finish in front of them because of losing the season series tiebreaker with these teams.
Realistically, AJ Preller won’t want to sell unless the team is completely out of it. If you think about the recent seasons where the team was in similar or worse situations at the trade deadline like the ill-fated 2015 season (“rockstar GM”, 50-53 and 6.5 games out of the wild card), 2021 (when the team had the epic second half collapse and they were 61-45 and leading the wild card by 5.5 games) or 2023 (Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and the huge expectations, the team was 52-55 at the trade deadline and 5 games out of the wild card), AJ still hung on to players on expiring contracts even though it made more sense to trade them.
Guys like Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy in 2015 and Josh Hader and Blake Snell in 2023 could have been traded for some prospects since those teams were flawed and were unlikely to make a playoff push (and still thinking they could make a playoff push was the main reason he gave as to why he didn’t trade them). 2021 was understandable since the Padres were in a playoff position comfortably, though some will argue that they should have added reinforcements then considering all the injuries that ended up happening to the starting pitching.
In 2016 with the Padres starting their rebuild (the whole thing about doing the rebuild now so the 2020s could be the decade of the Padres), they did start trading guys like James Shields and Matt Kemp.
While Manny Machado (last 30 games slashing .279/.372/.586 with 8 HR and 23 RBI) and Fernando Tatis Jr (last 30 games at .274/.326/.452 with 4 HR and 16 RBI) are hitting much better recently and the offense is starting to show life, the starting pitching still remains a huge question mark.
Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta remain on the Injured List (IL), both targeting August returns but hard to guarantee either comes back then and even if they do, what they’ll look like considering how long they’ve been out. Look at Michael King and when he came back late last season and Musgrove will have been out 22 months since he last pitched in October 2024.
At the same time, Walker Buehler in three starts in July has a 16.36 ERA in 11 innings pitched, getting pulled after two innings in his last start yesterday July 11, Randy Vasquez and Lucas Giolito were both struggling when they went on the IL and the Padres are using JP Sears, Griffin Canning, German Marquez and even Matt Waldron with extreme care, not letting them go through the lineup a third time, which is understandable considering how much better hitters are a third time through.
But starting pitching is hanging on barely and it’s not like you can trade for 2-3 starters to pair with Michael King and hopefully Pivetta and Musgrove come back.
So that screams sell to me, but selling guys with value who will be free agents after the season like Adrian Morejon (as much as it pains me to do it but I feel he’ll get a big contract in the offseason and not sure the Padres will be able to or want to pay what he’s looking for and being a closer elsewhere despite how much he likes it here), Ty France, Jason Adam (assuming he gets back healthy), Miguel Andujar and even Michael King since his contract contains an opt out after each year. Even guys like Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui considering they have opt outs and if teams would be willing to take them on since everyone always needs more pitching and relief pitching costs teams less to trade for.
But I would hang on to Mason Miller considering you have three years of control after this season unless some team is really willing to blow you away with their trade offer. I do get the Padres are more reliant than other teams on box office draw with their limited TV contract and Miller has become someone the fans look to see. So considering they won’t get what they gave up for him last year trading Leo De Vries (who continues to impress as the #2 overall prospect in baseball), it would definitely affect the team continuing to draw if they trade him so quickly.
Again I would get creative and see what teams are interested in unless the team goes on some hot run by this year’s trading deadline of August 3, similar to what they did in 2024 when they went 43-20 after the all star break. Because otherwise this team will end up where you hold onto parts, don’t make the playoffs and then just continue to have a high payroll and barren farm system. Then we end up with a similar season next year as we did this year, assuming the season happens with the impending lockout. At some point, it just seems like the team needs to do a reset as can reasonably be done, considering the core players you have and their contracts that would make it hard to do a complete rebuild and the fan uproar it would cause.















































































