san-diego

End of the Playoffs Musings

Posted on by Paul

With the Padres being eliminated by the Cubs in the Wild Card Series 2 games to 1, some musings with the season now over:

  • The Padres played this playoff series pretty much like they have in the regular season with the offense not able to score too many runs and the pitching doing pretty well. I would have taken giving up only 6 runs in a three-game series against a team at their ballpark that slugs (Cubs were third in the NL in home runs during the regular season) going into the series. The Padres only scoring 5 runs total isn’t that surprising considering how the offense has played. They did score 3 of the 5 runs on home runs (60% of their runs) which is substantially higher than what they did in the regular season (about 33% of their runs were on home runs).
  • The top of the order with Tatis (1-12 with 2 runs and 1 walk), Arraez (2-11) and Machado (1-10 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 run and 2 walks) really hampered the offense. Manny did have the big home run in the game 2 win in which Tatis scored two of the three runs, which actually shows that the Padres are dependent on the top of the lineup. This put a damper on how well Fermin, Merill and Bogaerts were able to hit in the series, with all three getting on base all three games.
  • You have to wonder if this team ever gets over the hump. 4 postseason trips in 6 years is the best period in Padres baseball. One way to look at it, is if you keep giving yourself chances to be in the playoffs, that eventually the team breaks through. You can look at how many times the Dodgers have made the playoffs and how many times they’ve won the World Series, with the same for the Astros and the Braves, with the Braves both recently and when they were making the playoffs in the 90s. The other way to look at it is this team’s already at the ceiling and won’t get over the hump so it’s time to break it up a bit and try something different.
  • I do wonder if Manny is the person to really lead this team to the promise land considering his current postseason stats of .209/.259/.423 in 51 postseason games. Not saying he isn’t a part of a championship team but more being the leader of the team as he currently is with the Padres. The team seems to go as he goes and he’s not consistent enough. He’s right when he says he ends up with his baseball card numbers each year but it’s usually because he has hot stretches along with cold stretches. This season is a great example of this where he struggled in April, carried the team in May through July and then ended the season ice cold in August and September. In the playoffs, we need someone who can consistently deliver throughout the month and thus far in Manny’s career he hasn’t done this in multiple playoff runs, including his time before the Padres.
  • The Padres can’t really completely revamp or rebuild their team (and they really shouldn’t) so here are my first thoughts on the 2026 lineup:
    C – Fermin and another catcher
    1B – ?
    2B – Cronenworth
    SS – Bogaerts
    3B – Machado
    LF – Laureano
    CF – Merrill
    RF – Tatis
    DH – Sheets and a righty
    Utility IF – Veteran
    Utility OF – Johnson
    O’Hearn could be an option at 1B depending on what his market is, though I feel he may get offers more than what the Padres are looking to pay for a 1B. I wouldn’t be opposed to Diaz coming back to be the catcher behind Fermin and I don’t believe Salas is ready considering his injury-plagued 2025 and with how long it takes catchers to develop. Having a righty to complement Sheets would be a good mix since Sheets can also complement Laureano in LF as needed.

    SP – Pivetta
    SP – Musgrove
    SP – Vasquez
    SP – Sears
    SP – ?
    Will need at least two considering how injuries happen in a season, so Waldron could be an option here (and I believe he will still have a minor league option in 2026) in addition to a free agent signing if not multiple signings. Hard to see King or Cease coming back with how the pitching market usually is but will be interesting to see what King’s market looks like after the injury.

    RP – Miller
    RP – Morejon
    RP – Adam (may come back after the season starts)
    RP – Estrada
    RP – Matsui (Padres can’t send him down)
    RP – Morgan
    RP – Rodriguez
    RP – Hoeing
    RP – Reynolds
    RP – Marinaccio
    I listed a large amount of relievers as the Padres have pretty good relievers and like the starters, will need additional relievers throughout the course of a season due to injuries or as other things come up. Some of these guys like Rodriguez and Marinaccio will still have minor league options to send up and time as needed to juggle the roster throughout the season.
  • With that said, all we can do is look forward to 2026 and hope that sometime soon the team can win that elusive first World Series. As it has been in this decide, I expect it will be another interesting offseason with the Padres. I’ll see everyone at Opening Day on March 26, 2026.

End of the Regular Season Musings

Posted on by Paul

With the regular season now over, some musings before the playoffs start tomorrow:

  • Finishing with 90 wins so that it was the first time in franchise history to have back-to-back 90+ win seasons and make the playoffs back-to-back for the second time in franchise history is pretty good. I wasn’t expecting the team to win 90 games at the beginning of the season but with the trades made, you expected them to be good (60-49 at the trade deadline so 30-23 after) so finishing with 90 wins feels about right. They ended at a season 18 games above .500 (which they also achieved earlier in the season when they were 74-56).
  • Still disappointing that they had the poor stretch in late August and early September (losing 11 out of 16 games). Even playing a little better at .500 (8-8) would have given them a legitimate shot to win the division or at least finish as the 4 seed to host the wild card round at Petco.
  • The lost of Ramon Laureano and Jason Adam are both big and it’s unfortunate that they happened to freak injuries. Considering how many left handed batters the team has, Laureano provided a good right handed complement. With Adam, you could be less dependent on your starters (and outside of Nick Pivetta, they’re all pretty inconsistent and shaky) as well as have multiple high leverage relievers available every day to keep guys fresh. I get it with the playoffs there are more off days but still it was the reason they got Mason Miller to build the super bullpen.
  • I see the Wild Card series as being pretty even with the Chicago Cubs and going either way. Cubs losing Cade Horton is a big blow and Kyle Tucker is just back from injury. Cubs have the better starting pitching still and more slug while the Padres have the better bullpen and you hope the hitters can hit like they’ve been doing the past week, albeit this was hitting at home where the Padres are much better (52-29 at home versus 38-43 on the road).
  • Looking forward to the playoffs and hopefully the Padres can make a long run. It is true that anything can happen in the playoffs as there’s so much randomness there and role players can get on a run like Trent Grisham did for the Padres in 2022.

Dodgers Sweep Monday Musings

Posted on by Paul

After this weekend’s sweep by the Dodgers, some musings on the Padres’ recent play:

  • Going into this 13-game stretch against the Giants and Dodgers, I was expecting 3-3 for the first 6 games so they ended where I figured (I was thinking 2-1 versus the Giants and 1-2 versus the Dodgers). Of course, after sweeping the Giants and leading the division by 1 game as the Dodgers got swept by the Angels, expectations were higher to at least win one if not two games against the Dodgers. So a big letdown with how it played out.
  • When Robert Suarez started warming up to possibly pitch in the bottom of the 8th inning today, I actually thought that Mike Shildt was starting to turn a new leaf and have Mason Miller close but then I realized the 2-3-4 hitters were coming up and he wanted his “best” reliever to face them. Shildt to his credit does have relievers come in different non-standard times (like Jason Adam coming in the 5th or 6th inning when the opposing team’s best hitters are coming up and that could change the game right there) but his insistence on Suarez as the “best” reliever and the closer doesn’t make sense after acquiring Miller. How many other teams do you know have a setup guy who throws harder and has a better “secondary” pitch (Miller considers his slider his best pitch) than their closer? Even though Suarez currently leads MLB with 33 saves, we’ve seen Suarez’s fastball get hit often by power hitters. So of course, Mookie Betts hits a home run today to give the Dodgers the lead right after the Padres had fought back to tie it up and it ends up being the game-winning hit to close out the sweep.
  • I do get the Padres go as the top of the order goes and the top of order (Tatis, Arraez and Machado) has been struggling for some time now and this series against the Dodgers showed it even more. I like the lineup of alternating righties and lefties so if we’re not going to move Manny or Tatis now, then we have to do something about Arraez who’s not providing value at the 2 hole especially if the other two guys are struggling too.

    I like having Tatis first even though his slug has pretty much disappeared, he’s still getting on base at a high clip (since the All Star Break his OBP is .392), has the speed potential on the bases and will drive in the bottom of the lineup more often than other guys. As well, if we’re not going to move Manny down since he was carrying the team before, prefers hitting in the 3 spot and it would cause some friction, then Arraez is the best option to change, especially when you consider:
  • And then you have a player newly acquired who was an all star this year, has an OPS of .819, can play 1st (his defensive runs saved is 4 and outs above average is 6 at 1B compared to Arraez’s DRS of 1 and OAA of -6) and whose overall numbers are just better:
    https://stathead.com/tiny/CLUbp
  • So it really doesn’t make any sense why O’Hearn isn’t playing every day and instead joins Sheets on the bench as the odd men out when a lefty is the starting pitcher. With the current team, this instead would be a better lineup:
    • Tatis RF (R)
    • O’Hearn 1B (L)
    • Machado 3B (R)
    • Sheets DH (L)
    • Laureano LF (R)
    • Merrill CF (L)
    • Bogaerts SS (R)
    • Cronenworth 2B (L)
    • Fermin C (R)
      or
    • Tatis RF (R)
    • O’Hearn 1B (L)
    • Machado 3B (R)
    • Merrill CF (L)
    • Laureano LF (R)
    • Arraez DH (L)
    • Bogaerts SS (R)
    • Cronenworth 2B (L)
    • Fermin C (R)

      In either lineup, as we seen with Cronenworth being moved down to 8th, moving guys like Bogaerts, Merrill or Arraez lengthens the lineup and takes some of the pressure off of them so they don’t have to be in such high leverage situations so often. Whether or not Shildt actually does this is another thing as it wouldn’t be surprising for him to continue to roll out the same lineup as he’s been doing for most of the season despite the lineup’s struggles.

Jackson Merrill’s Extension

Posted on by Paul

With today’s 5-2 win over the Cleveland Guardians to wrap up the first homestand of the season and a 7-0 record, the big news of the day was the Padres and Jackson Merrill announcing agreement on a 9 year $135 million extension.

There have been murmurs recently about how the Padres started discussion on an extension prior to Jackson’s rookie year (similar to what the Brewers did with Jackson Chourio) and have tried again since then.

But even though Jackson said he was looking for a fair deal, I wasn’t expecting a deal to happen this quickly. Mainly because the Padres may have missed the boat with the great year that Jackson had (when he should have been the NL Rookie of the Year) and I wouldn’t be surprised if any player after that type of rookie season would want to bet on themselves to get a larger payday when they could hit free agency after 6 full years.

Not to mention all that’s going on with the Padres ownership and questions about the team’s long-term finances (along with the many big contracts already on the books) so the chances of a Jackson Chourio team-friendly deal seemed unlikely or was going to be really expensive.

Figured they might talk again after this season, with money coming off the books (like Eric Hosmer’s last $13 million this season) and currently being over the second CBT threshold.

So it was a pleasant surprise waking up this morning and getting texts from family and friends about the news breaking of the 9-year, $135 million deal that starts next season. Even with the escalators and options to go possibly up to 10 years and $204 million, it’s still a great deal to be able to lock him up long term.

You’re getting 5 of his free agency years from 2030-2034 (if he didn’t sign an extension, he would become a free agent after the 2029 season) which would be his prime free agency years. Most teams signing players to 10-15 year contracts are basing it on getting most of the production in the first 5-7 years and then you’re just living with a large contract towards the end of the player’s career, like Albert Pujols or Justin Upton with the Angels.

So in this case, not only are you getting what you expect is great production from Jackson during the prime free agency years but also at a good deal at $15-$20.4 million per year when you think about where contracts are currently and how much you you’ll be paying in 5 years. I mean look at some of the deals other guys were getting recently. Cody Bellinger got a three-year, $80 million deal prior to 2024 and Tommy Edman got a five-year, $74 million this past offseason so you can see the salaries for veteran players who play centerfield get pretty high.

Of course, with any big contracts, even with younger players, there’s the risk that the player may not live up to it. I remember the Padres trying to do something on a much smaller scale with Nick Hundley, Corey Luebke and Cameron Maybin back in 2012 so they could buy out their arbitration years at much lower salaries if they became stars as they showed potential to. Of course, none of them became big stars so it wasn’t the bargain the team hoped for. But to me, the risk is worth it because as the baseball economies go up, even if he doesn’t pan out (which I would shocked at just seeing how he played in his rookie year), it’s not that large of a contract especially as MLB salaries keep going up (which now top on average $5 million for a season).

So all in all, really happy Jackson Merrill and the Padres were able to come to an agreement on this extension and excited that he’ll be a core part of this team until at least 2034.

Opening Series Thoughts

Posted on by Paul

With the Padres sweeping the Braves to start the season 4-0 for the second time in franchise history (1984 being the other year when the Padres went to the World Series for the first time), some thoughts from this weekend:

  • Luis Arraez being 0-13 to start the season was not on my Bingo card. He does have one walk so far and did start off 0-10 in his first two games last year.
  • Gavin Sheets continues to have good at bats as he was in Spring Training.
  • Xander and Jake had some nice hits this series (Jake’s HR to take the lead and ultimately be the difference is typical Jake coming up with big hits) but the strikeouts by both (Jake 6 strikeouts in 13 ABs and Xander 5 in 11 ABs) is reminiscent of last year.
  • Day games in April are pretty cold (only one true night game this weekend on Friday) and at least for me, preferable to summer day games when the sun is beating down on you pretty much the whole game on the first base side unless your seats are far back under the overhang. I get the Padres were on the first base side at Jack Murphy/Qualcomm Stadium but wonder why they didn’t put the home dugout on the third base side considering that side is pretty much in the shade the whole time during day games.
  • For the jersey geeks like myself, during this homestand the home pinstripes and the Sunday camos are back to using the larger names on the back with the smaller arch like in 2023 and earlier after the whole 2024 jersey fiasco. If you look on the Padres Instagram, you can see this year’s camo jersey vs last year’s to see the difference. But interestingly, this year’s City Connect jersey still has the same smaller lettering and larger arch like last year. Maybe Nike doesn’t want to update the City Connect since this is the last year of using them? Which seems weird since it doesn’t seem that difficult to make the letters bigger and stitch them on like the other jerseys since they have to do them at a minimum for new players on the team.

Opening Day Musings

Posted on by Paul

Opening day is always a great day. Not only is everyone starting 0-0 (well except the Dodgers and Cubs since they played in Japan the week before) but it’s the first time back in the ballpark since late last year so there’s a freshness to it, especially with seeing what’s different at Petco Park since the last time I was here.

What really hits it for me is when you first hear the roar of the crowd on Opening Day, in this case when Jackson Merrill singled in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado with two outs in the bottom of the 1st.

That roar really reminded me why I love baseball and look forward to going to games in person. Not only is Petco a great place to watch the game but there’s the energy in the stands that you can’t match watching it at home.

With that said, here are some thoughts from around the ballpark on the first day:

  • Still long lines to get into the team store even with the renovation. Granted it was Opening Day (and there usually was a line before the game the past few seasons when there were capacity crowds) but we tried going about 45 minutes before the game and the line snaked outside towards the Hall of Fame. Being that we wanted to get some food and catch the pregame ceremonies we decided to try again after the game when usually you can get in right away. However, going after the game the line was even longer so we just decided to try again on Friday.
  • The new Mini Donut Company stand (section 107 right next to Seaside Market) is definitely worth trying if you’re into donuts. They have 5 different flavors (churro, powered sugar, sprinkles with white frosting, sprinkles with chocolate frosting and plain) and were available in 6 and 12 packs.
  • The walkway where the Lexus Club and Padres Authentics stand is a major bottleneck after the game ends. Maybe because there’s also a merch stand and restrooms here too but it gets really bottlenecked if you’re on the first base side trying to make it over to the Western Metal Building after the game (such as going to the team store) or if you’re on the third base side trying to make it over to the Home Plate Gate. I’ve put in the survey to the Padres about this but if you can avoid going this way after the game (i.e. if you’re on the first base side and just want to exit go out towards the Home Plate or Park Blvd Gate or if you do want to go to the team store from the first base side walk around through right field and through Gallagher Square) as it takes a bit of time to get through.

But overall a great time, especially with the Padres coming back to win. Gavin Sheets continuing his Spring Training home run renaissance really started it in the bottom of the 7th as the place erupted when the ball cleared straight away center field as Michael Harris II tried jumping for it.

Will be back at the ballpark again at Tony Gwynn Opening Day and will post if there are any other musings.