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Michael King Returns

Posted on by Paul

Going into the offseason, it was unlikely that Dylan Cease and Michael King would return but if I had the choice of one, I would go with Michael King. Cease is a workhorse but seeing how inconsistent he is (not to mention how he’s done in the playoffs) along with King’s repertoire and the fact that I figured his contract would be cheaper, I was really hoping the Padres could find a way to bring him back.

But once Cease signed early in the offseason with Toronto for 7 years $210 million, you figured King would get a good deal especially as you heard about the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles being interested, all teams on the east coast where King was from.

But then you heard murmurs about the Padres still being interested and the deal was quickly announced. He gets one year at $22 million, which is pretty much the $22.025 million qualifying offer, and then two additional years at his option to make it two years $45 million or three years $75 million.

Three years $75 million was what some were projecting he would get going into free agency and considering the qualifying offer draft pick compensation, his injuries in 2025 plus his limited history as a starter, this may have scared off some teams or lower their offer to a lower average annual value to less than $25 million.

I see this as a good deal for both sides. King benefits more since, if he pitches extremely well, he can go back into free agency for a big payday without the qualifying offer attached that scares some teams off and if he doesn’t, he can opt in and try again in a year or two.

But I see this as a win for the Padres since they need starting pitching for 2026, they know what King’s capable of and anyone else who could be of ace quality would have been at least the same cost if not more. I’ve always felt that long-term contracts for pitchers are extremely risky for the team with how injuries affect pitchers. Just look at Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove and the injuries to them since they both signed their long-term extensions.

For the Padres with a bunch of large contracts, having King on a short-term contract is ideal so you have quality pitching without being tied to something large and long term. Of course it would have been better if it was team options or a straight three year deal but it seems being creative to reduce the actual cost (since the contract is structured with $12 million as a signing bonus, a $5 million salary in 2026 and a $5 million buyout if he declines the option) is something AJ is having to do to keep the Padres costs down. So this seems to be the only way to get him to accept is giving him options. Then again, it may be what the Padres prefer since they may hope guys opt out so we don’t have too many more long-term contracts on the books.

I’m bullish on King being closer to his 2024 self versus what we saw in 2025. Considering in 2025 before his first injury sleeping awkwardly, he was pitching great (10 starts with a 2.59 ERA, .195 AVG against, 1.02 WHIP, 3.26 FIP) and he says he’s fully healthy so I can see him having a great season in 2026 and being at the front of the rotation.

Craig Stammen new Padres Manager

Posted on by Paul

When it was posted yesterday morning on X.com by Matt Jones out of Kentucky that Craig Stammen was the new manager:

My first reaction was this couldn’t be serious considering we hadn’t heard anything about him being a candidate and Stammen not having any managerial/coaching experience. There had been talk of a fourth mysterious candidate outside of Albert Pujols, Ruben Niebla and Nick Hundley so at that point it didn’t seem that far-fetched if he was the person.

Then the Padres announced it an hour later:

Once the shock wore off and I started reading more coverage of it, I could see why he was the choice. All four candidates that were finalists didn’t have MLB managerial experience (granted Pujols had experience managing in the Dominican Republic league) so any candidate was going to need to learn on the job and have a good experienced staff around him.

And with how highly people speak of Stammen as a leader and people person and how he’s worked in the Padres organization since 2023, I could see AJ wanting someone who knew how the organization worked, its philosophy and how the players are (especially guys like Machado and Tatis who he’s played alongside) to maintain that continuity like they did with Mike Shildt.

Of course, the other side is maybe it’s time to do something different to break up that continuity because depending on how you look at it, it’s either a good or bad thing how the Padres have been lately. Good that since 2020 the Padres have had more success than any other time in franchise history (four playoff trips in six years) but bad in that it still hasn’t resulted in winning the World Series.

I don’t have as much of an uproar about it as other people since it wasn’t like we were realistically choosing him over Bruce Bochy (which would have been great as previously mentioned) so anyone was going to be new in this role. And superstars like Pujols generally haven’t translated well into managerial/front office roles since it’s hard for them to relate and understand the mindset of all players on the roster, since they can’t understand the difficulties that journeyman players have.

So that’s generally why you see a lot of managers being players who were role/bench guys become managers and head coaches. While pitchers haven’t really been managers before and he has no experience, that to me is the unconventional part of this hire, which I don’t mind as much to try something different. So I see it as combination of both something to be stable and unconventional which is on brand for AJ Preller.

There’s been plenty of guys with limited or no experience coaching and managing like Steve Kerr and JJ Redick in the NBA and Aaron Boone and Mike Matheny in MLB. Of course, there have been plenty of other spectacular failures with new guys, just look at Andy Green and Jayce Tingler that AJ hired. So it’s a crapshoot regardless of which way it goes but I’m open to seeing how it plays out with Craig Stammen before bashing the move already like others are doing.

Mike Shildt’s Retirement

Posted on by Paul

I was surprised as anyone by Mike Shildt’s retirement. I wasn’t a big fan of his stubbornness and how he constructed the lineup (Arraez batting 2nd all season) and his use of the bullpen (sticking with Suarez as the closer after acquiring Mason Miller and the way he used Wandy Peralta in high leverage situations) but considering the Padres won 90+ games in back to back seasons for the first time and made the playoffs in back to back years, it was expected for him to be back another year.

But once he retired and word came out about some of the coaching staff and support staff issues, you can see why he would be burnt out trying to do a tough job and working with everyone in the org. Being a sports manager/coach at the professional or college level isn’t an easy job with all the committments you have with players, coaches, the org and media. Maybe it was better for everyone if he left at this time.

What’s interesting is reading about how Ryan Flaherty was AJ Preller’s preferred choice for manager two years ago but he may have been overruled by Eric Kutsenda and Erik Greupner. When the decision was announced then that Mike Shildt would be the new manager, I liked the decision as you were going with someone who had been inside the team for the past two years to understand the team dynamics and organizational structure and was an experienced winning manager. You figured he would keep going what had been built, better handle some of the issues (like the strife between AJ Preller and Bob Melvin) and could keep it running for several years.

And Shildt did exactly that with how they won in 2024 but 2025 you started to see maybe why he left St. Louis because of “philosophical differences”. It was with the way he managed the team as there’s no way the analytics team wasn’t telling him that Arraez shouldn’t be batting second with how much he struggled throughout the season not should he have continued playing first base over Ryan O’Hearn who is a much better defender by the metrics at 1B.

As the search turns to the new manager, my ideal scenario would be to bring back Bruce Bochy for two years and promise Ruben Niebla to be the next manager. Bochy being 70 isn’t going to manage much longer (if he does manage again) so why not bring him home to take it over the finish line like what he did with the Texas Rangers.

He knows how to win and push the right buttons in the playoffs and someone like him would be respected in the clubhouse to make the tough decisions. It feels like part of the reason Mike Shildt didn’t want to make changes was the relationships he built with players that he didn’t want to upset even though it was in the best interests of the club and that’s where I can see Bochy doing this and getting the players onboard. And it would be great to have Boch finish out his managerial career with his first team and get us the elusive first World Series title.

But realistically it doesn’t seem this will happen from what I’ve read (doesn’t seem the Padres want to bring him back and not sure Bochy wants to come back into this) so will be interesting to see who the next manager is.

End of the Playoffs Musings

Posted on by Paul

With the Padres being eliminated by the Cubs in the Wild Card Series 2 games to 1, some musings with the season now over:

  • The Padres played this playoff series pretty much like they have in the regular season with the offense not able to score too many runs and the pitching doing pretty well. I would have taken giving up only 6 runs in a three-game series against a team at their ballpark that slugs (Cubs were third in the NL in home runs during the regular season) going into the series. The Padres only scoring 5 runs total isn’t that surprising considering how the offense has played. They did score 3 of the 5 runs on home runs (60% of their runs) which is substantially higher than what they did in the regular season (about 33% of their runs were on home runs).
  • The top of the order with Tatis (1-12 with 2 runs and 1 walk), Arraez (2-11) and Machado (1-10 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 run and 2 walks) really hampered the offense. Manny did have the big home run in the game 2 win in which Tatis scored two of the three runs, which actually shows that the Padres are dependent on the top of the lineup. This put a damper on how well Fermin, Merill and Bogaerts were able to hit in the series, with all three getting on base all three games.
  • You have to wonder if this team ever gets over the hump. 4 postseason trips in 6 years is the best period in Padres baseball. One way to look at it, is if you keep giving yourself chances to be in the playoffs, that eventually the team breaks through. You can look at how many times the Dodgers have made the playoffs and how many times they’ve won the World Series, with the same for the Astros and the Braves, with the Braves both recently and when they were making the playoffs in the 90s. The other way to look at it is this team’s already at the ceiling and won’t get over the hump so it’s time to break it up a bit and try something different.
  • I do wonder if Manny is the person to really lead this team to the promise land considering his current postseason stats of .209/.259/.423 in 51 postseason games. Not saying he isn’t a part of a championship team but more being the leader of the team as he currently is with the Padres. The team seems to go as he goes and he’s not consistent enough. He’s right when he says he ends up with his baseball card numbers each year but it’s usually because he has hot stretches along with cold stretches. This season is a great example of this where he struggled in April, carried the team in May through July and then ended the season ice cold in August and September. In the playoffs, we need someone who can consistently deliver throughout the month and thus far in Manny’s career he hasn’t done this in multiple playoff runs, including his time before the Padres.
  • The Padres can’t really completely revamp or rebuild their team (and they really shouldn’t) so here are my first thoughts on the 2026 lineup:
    C – Fermin and another catcher
    1B – ?
    2B – Cronenworth
    SS – Bogaerts
    3B – Machado
    LF – Laureano
    CF – Merrill
    RF – Tatis
    DH – Sheets and a righty
    Utility IF – Veteran
    Utility OF – Johnson
    O’Hearn could be an option at 1B depending on what his market is, though I feel he may get offers more than what the Padres are looking to pay for a 1B. I wouldn’t be opposed to Diaz coming back to be the catcher behind Fermin and I don’t believe Salas is ready considering his injury-plagued 2025 and with how long it takes catchers to develop. Having a righty to complement Sheets would be a good mix since Sheets can also complement Laureano in LF as needed.

    SP – Pivetta
    SP – Musgrove
    SP – Vasquez
    SP – Sears
    SP – ?
    Will need at least two considering how injuries happen in a season, so Waldron could be an option here (and I believe he will still have a minor league option in 2026) in addition to a free agent signing if not multiple signings. Hard to see King or Cease coming back with how the pitching market usually is but will be interesting to see what King’s market looks like after the injury.

    RP – Miller
    RP – Morejon
    RP – Adam (may come back after the season starts)
    RP – Estrada
    RP – Matsui (Padres can’t send him down)
    RP – Morgan
    RP – Rodriguez
    RP – Hoeing
    RP – Reynolds
    RP – Marinaccio
    I listed a large amount of relievers as the Padres have pretty good relievers and like the starters, will need additional relievers throughout the course of a season due to injuries or as other things come up. Some of these guys like Rodriguez and Marinaccio will still have minor league options to send up and time as needed to juggle the roster throughout the season.
  • With that said, all we can do is look forward to 2026 and hope that sometime soon the team can win that elusive first World Series. As it has been in this decide, I expect it will be another interesting offseason with the Padres. I’ll see everyone at Opening Day on March 26, 2026.

End of the Regular Season Musings

Posted on by Paul

With the regular season now over, some musings before the playoffs start tomorrow:

  • Finishing with 90 wins so that it was the first time in franchise history to have back-to-back 90+ win seasons and make the playoffs back-to-back for the second time in franchise history is pretty good. I wasn’t expecting the team to win 90 games at the beginning of the season but with the trades made, you expected them to be good (60-49 at the trade deadline so 30-23 after) so finishing with 90 wins feels about right. They ended at a season 18 games above .500 (which they also achieved earlier in the season when they were 74-56).
  • Still disappointing that they had the poor stretch in late August and early September (losing 11 out of 16 games). Even playing a little better at .500 (8-8) would have given them a legitimate shot to win the division or at least finish as the 4 seed to host the wild card round at Petco.
  • The lost of Ramon Laureano and Jason Adam are both big and it’s unfortunate that they happened to freak injuries. Considering how many left handed batters the team has, Laureano provided a good right handed complement. With Adam, you could be less dependent on your starters (and outside of Nick Pivetta, they’re all pretty inconsistent and shaky) as well as have multiple high leverage relievers available every day to keep guys fresh. I get it with the playoffs there are more off days but still it was the reason they got Mason Miller to build the super bullpen.
  • I see the Wild Card series as being pretty even with the Chicago Cubs and going either way. Cubs losing Cade Horton is a big blow and Kyle Tucker is just back from injury. Cubs have the better starting pitching still and more slug while the Padres have the better bullpen and you hope the hitters can hit like they’ve been doing the past week, albeit this was hitting at home where the Padres are much better (52-29 at home versus 38-43 on the road).
  • Looking forward to the playoffs and hopefully the Padres can make a long run. It is true that anything can happen in the playoffs as there’s so much randomness there and role players can get on a run like Trent Grisham did for the Padres in 2022.

Giants and Dodgers 13 Game Stretch Musings

Posted on by Paul

Now that the 13 straight games against the Giants and Dodgers have ended, some musings:

  • As mentioned in my last post, I was expecting 3-3 for the first week. Now that the second week and all 13 games are done, going into this week I was thinking 7-6 would be good (2-2 against the Giants and 2-1 against the Dodgers or some combination of 4-3 this week) so to end up 8-5 after these 13 games is great and I would have signed up for that easily if you told me that two weeks ago before these 13 games started.
  • Starting pitching held up really well against the Dodgers with Nick Pivetta closing out the series with 6 innings and two runs. What was a red flag last weekend in LA (starting with Michael King going on the IL again and the early inning struggles by Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish against the Dodgers) was a bright spot this weekend and is the cyclical nature of baseball and its long season. What Yu Darvish and Nestor Cortes did the first two games of 6 innings of one hit each was impressive, especially when I saw this:
  • As I also mentioned in the last post, we need to do something about Arraez considering how much better Ryan O’Hearn and Gavin Sheets are playing, especially with both playing all the time the past week while Jackson Merrill was out. This weekend didn’t help matters with Arraez hitting into more double plays (2) than he had hits (1). If he can’t be a bench guy like what’s happened to Elias Diaz and how Freddy Fermin is playing 4-5 times a week (versus before with Diaz and Martin Maldonado where it was more of a 50% split), then at least move him down in the lineup as I mentioned in my last post. He’s killing the lineup between Tatis and Machado right now when we could have a much better hitter like O’Hearn there.
  • The decision to go to Jeremiah Estrada today in the 7th inning of a tied game with all his struggles against the Dodgers was another move by Mike Shildt that didn’t make sense except for his continued stubbornness on sticking with guys regardless of what’s happened (just like Luis Arraez in the two hole). Estrada gave up a home run last night when it was 3-0 and Kevin Acee wrote before the game today about his major struggles against the Dodgers. So considering these stats, that Estrada had pitched the night before and struggled, not sure why the move wasn’t to go to David Morgan (who hadn’t pitched either of the past two games) and then go to Mason Miller and Robert Suarez who both didn’t pitch last night either. It doesn’t help when Shildt gives the defiant response as shown in the below audio that doesn’t really give any good rationale to why he put Estrada in other than the 7th inning is his lane, which doesn’t make sense considering how he’s mixed and matched the bullpen and when guys appear in games all year.
  • I do get why Shildt left Estrada in there to face the left hitting Dalton Rushing after two of the first three guys got on base versus going to Adrian Morejon since the Dodgers would have pinch hit with the righty Will Smith against the lefty Morejon. Even though I would have preferred that matchup because of how well Morejon has pitched this year and considering Estrada’s struggles, sticking with Estrada there is understandable. What isn’t, was going to Estrada in the first place.
  • Now it’s time for the conclusion of the Vedder Cup with the Seattle Mariners. The Marines have played the Padres tough recently (3-1 against the Padres in 2022, 2023, 2024 and swept the Padres in a three game series at Petco earlier this year) so even though the Mariners have struggled recently (3-7), I’m hoping the Padres can play well and win one or two up there in Seattle.

Dodgers Sweep Monday Musings

Posted on by Paul

After this weekend’s sweep by the Dodgers, some musings on the Padres’ recent play:

  • Going into this 13-game stretch against the Giants and Dodgers, I was expecting 3-3 for the first 6 games so they ended where I figured (I was thinking 2-1 versus the Giants and 1-2 versus the Dodgers). Of course, after sweeping the Giants and leading the division by 1 game as the Dodgers got swept by the Angels, expectations were higher to at least win one if not two games against the Dodgers. So a big letdown with how it played out.
  • When Robert Suarez started warming up to possibly pitch in the bottom of the 8th inning today, I actually thought that Mike Shildt was starting to turn a new leaf and have Mason Miller close but then I realized the 2-3-4 hitters were coming up and he wanted his “best” reliever to face them. Shildt to his credit does have relievers come in different non-standard times (like Jason Adam coming in the 5th or 6th inning when the opposing team’s best hitters are coming up and that could change the game right there) but his insistence on Suarez as the “best” reliever and the closer doesn’t make sense after acquiring Miller. How many other teams do you know have a setup guy who throws harder and has a better “secondary” pitch (Miller considers his slider his best pitch) than their closer? Even though Suarez currently leads MLB with 33 saves, we’ve seen Suarez’s fastball get hit often by power hitters. So of course, Mookie Betts hits a home run today to give the Dodgers the lead right after the Padres had fought back to tie it up and it ends up being the game-winning hit to close out the sweep.
  • I do get the Padres go as the top of the order goes and the top of order (Tatis, Arraez and Machado) has been struggling for some time now and this series against the Dodgers showed it even more. I like the lineup of alternating righties and lefties so if we’re not going to move Manny or Tatis now, then we have to do something about Arraez who’s not providing value at the 2 hole especially if the other two guys are struggling too.

    I like having Tatis first even though his slug has pretty much disappeared, he’s still getting on base at a high clip (since the All Star Break his OBP is .392), has the speed potential on the bases and will drive in the bottom of the lineup more often than other guys. As well, if we’re not going to move Manny down since he was carrying the team before, prefers hitting in the 3 spot and it would cause some friction, then Arraez is the best option to change, especially when you consider:
  • And then you have a player newly acquired who was an all star this year, has an OPS of .819, can play 1st (his defensive runs saved is 4 and outs above average is 6 at 1B compared to Arraez’s DRS of 1 and OAA of -6) and whose overall numbers are just better:
    https://stathead.com/tiny/CLUbp
  • So it really doesn’t make any sense why O’Hearn isn’t playing every day and instead joins Sheets on the bench as the odd men out when a lefty is the starting pitcher. With the current team, this instead would be a better lineup:
    • Tatis RF (R)
    • O’Hearn 1B (L)
    • Machado 3B (R)
    • Sheets DH (L)
    • Laureano LF (R)
    • Merrill CF (L)
    • Bogaerts SS (R)
    • Cronenworth 2B (L)
    • Fermin C (R)
      or
    • Tatis RF (R)
    • O’Hearn 1B (L)
    • Machado 3B (R)
    • Merrill CF (L)
    • Laureano LF (R)
    • Arraez DH (L)
    • Bogaerts SS (R)
    • Cronenworth 2B (L)
    • Fermin C (R)

      In either lineup, as we seen with Cronenworth being moved down to 8th, moving guys like Bogaerts, Merrill or Arraez lengthens the lineup and takes some of the pressure off of them so they don’t have to be in such high leverage situations so often. Whether or not Shildt actually does this is another thing as it wouldn’t be surprising for him to continue to roll out the same lineup as he’s been doing for most of the season despite the lineup’s struggles.

Trade Deadline Musings

Posted on by Paul

With AJ Preller doing what he does and making a bunch of trades at the trade deadline, some musings on all the moves:

  • Going into today, the only player I didn’t want to see the Padres trade was Leo De Vries as he has the potential to be a superstar. Just seeing what he’s doing in the minors at 18 makes me think he’ll be in the majors no later than at 20 years old in 2027. So when I saw in the morning that he was part of the trade to get Mason Miller and JP Sears, that was disappointing to see. I get that both Miller and Sears have a ton of control (Miller won’t be a free agent until after the 2029 season and Sears 2028) so the A’s wanted it to be worth their while but still. Every other player they traded today I didn’t have any issues with.
  • Trading for Freddy Fermin for Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek who both did admirable jobs taking their turns in the rotation around the #5 spot seemed a lot but I get that one. Even with how the catchers have been playing the past few games, the offensive production at catching has been pretty bad and Fermin has solid metrics for both offense and catching. As well he’s also under control through the 2029 season so another reason why I see the Padres trading for him.
  • I really like the trade for Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn. Both guys have high OPS and fill needs at LF and DH. Laureano at .884 would be the highest on the Padres at the time of the trade, above Manny Machado’s .872 that currently leads the Padres and O’Hearn would be third at .837, above Fernando Tatis Jr’s .818. Laureano is mixed for defense in LF as he has a 3 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) but -4 in Outs Above Average (OAA) while O’Hearn is 3 DRS and 6 OAA at 1B so he rates well there. Adding these two solid batters in the lineup just lengthens the lineup so much more and gives options for different pitching matchups. For example I would go with the following lineup on most days:
    • Tatis (R) RF
    • Arraez (L) DH
    • Machado (R) 3B
    • Merrill (L) CF
    • Laureano (R) LF
    • O’Hearn (L) 1B
    • Bogaerts (R) SS
    • Cronenworth (L) 2B
    • Diaz/Fermin (R) C
      And then you can rotate Sheets in there between DH, 1B and LF as well as move guys around since there are so many hitters in this lineup.
  • I’m still not sold on Dylan Cease figuring it out this year and Robert Suarez being the one to close. So when there was talk of trading them I actually saw some potential there depending on what other moves were made. For example, if they had traded Cease but kept Bergert and Kolek to continue pitching in the regular season on each turn through the rotation, I don’t think that would have been much of a drop off though I get that you wouldn’t count on them in the playoffs. But in that case, assuming Yu Darvish and Michael King are available (and that could be a big if), you have Nick Pivetta and those two and can go bullpen games like what the Dodgers did last year.
  • I like having Mason Miller on the team but I feel Mike Shildt will continue to have Suarez close instead of considering matchups and going with the best one to close the game or else we would have seem Jason Adam close games this year versus always going to Suarez.
  • It was surprising that the Padres made moves without having to shed any salaries such as trading Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez or Jake Cronenworth. All the trades sent out prospects and they did get Milwaukee to pay Nestor Cortes’ remaining salary so they’re only responsible for the league minimum but still, the Padres’ tax and payroll numbers went up and the tax number currently sits about the second tax threshold of $261 million:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/_/year/2025

And their payroll number is currently 7th:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2025

I expected them to try and go below the second tax threshold (which I didn’t have a problem with considering their lack of a real TV deal, playing in a bottom third market and the fact that they’re already spending substantially more than many other teams) so it was a pleasant surprise to see them not totally restrict themselves on payroll.

Overall, AJ continues to find ways to trade prospects to try and make the current team better, regardless of people saying the Padres don’t have prospects to trade. You do have to start getting more young guys to contribute (can’t just be Jackson Merrill as the only young guy recently) especially as some of these guys getting paid a lot start to really age but AJ’s taking that as something to kick the can and worry about later and something I’m sure we’ll discuss further in the offseason. For now, this will be exciting to see what the team can do the rest of the year.

All Star Break Monday Musings

Posted on by Paul

With the All Star Break now and the unofficial “first” half over (since really they play more than 81 games by the time they get to the All Star Break), some musings on the current state of the Padres:

  • With Robert Suarez and Adrian Morejon being added as All Stars to replace other players who aren’t playing, the Padres became the first team to have three relievers make the All Star team in the same season. Pretty impressive and glad that MLB continues to value relievers not just based on saves. Adam and Morejon actually deserve it more based on their advanced pitching stats as shown below though I get that people still see saves as the “sexy” stat. Suarez does have three more saves than any other pitcher (28 saves to Carlos Estevez of KC and Josh Hader of Houston with 25 each) and seven more than the next NL pitcher (Trevor Megill with Milwaukee):
PlayerIPRA9RAAWAAgmLIWAAadjWARRARwaaWL%
Jason Adam47.22.45101.01.620.21.714.522
Adrián Morejón43.22.8980.91.670.11.412.518
Jeremiah Estrada43.03.5650.61.650.01.09.512
Robert Suarez40.23.7640.42.230.10.87.508
Wandy Peralta42.14.0420.20.93-0.10.56.505
Team Totals850.03.98636.71.35-0.714.1142.515

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/14/2025.

  • Still need a better hitting catcher and a right-handed batter who can play DH or LF. It’s becoming glaringly obvious how weak the bottom of the lineup is and getting this will really lengthen the lineup. There just isn’t much available on the trade market and I’m hoping AJ doesn’t go too crazy and trade one of our top picks. At some point we need to start replenishing the farm starting with the 2025 MLB Draft these past two days.
  • Nice way to end the first half with a 6-4 homestand. Going into the homestand, I was hoping for 6-4 and thought 5-5 was more realistic. Figured the Padres would win 2 out of 3 versus Texas, split 2-2 with Arizona and then win 1 out of 3 against Philadelphia considering Arizona and Philly have played the Padres tough the past few years regardless of how they were playing (Arizona had lost 8 out of 11 going into the series with the Padres and Philly lost 2 out of 3 to the Giants).

    Once we got to the last series against Philly and how they had their three best pitchers lined up, I was thinking even 1 out of 3 was going to be tough. So nice way to finish winning 2 out of 3 and really could have won the last game as you can’t really ask for more from your pitching when you only give up two runs including a run in the 1st inning due to two errors and then having multiple scoring opportunities including Luis Campusano grounding into a double play with runners on 1st and 2nd.

    Hopefully, the Padres can start the second half with some momentum. Would be crazy to ask them to repeat their second half last year (43-20) but if they can be something like 36-30 to end up with 88 wins, I can see that being enough to get into the playoffs where it becomes a crapshoot.

All Star Selection Monday Musings

Posted on by Paul

From hearing yesterday that Jason Adam and Fernando Tatis Jr. were selected to join Manny Machado as the Padres All Star selections, I wasn’t surprised that Jason Adam was selected (it’s well deserved) and that he was picked over Robert Suarez.

Even though Suarez leads the NL in saves, his underlying metrics haven’t been good (see my previous post) and Adam has been great all year. He’s had some blips here and there as you would expect with any pitcher and a long season, especially someone like Adam who is tied for second in number of appearances (44) this season (Tyler Rogers 45) which is leading to him being overused. It can’t be sustainable to have him end up appearing in 80+ games this year and even though he’s never complained about it, the current usage has to catch up to him here and there and having rough patches as a result.

Tatis being selected was a surprise, since we’ve seen him struggle for two months now. Since May 1, his slash line is .218/.328/.364 (OPS of .692) and a wRC+ of 98.

But reading more into it, my assumption is the players voted him based on overall metrics which include his hot start to the season along with what he does on the defensive side.

Even with the bad stretch, his fWAR is 3.6, his bWAR is 3.7 and both are 10th overall in all of MLB for position players. As well, he’s tied for 12th with 9 Outs Above Average, which is the highest for any right fielder.

So when you look at all the metrics including his defense, I can see why he was voted. But other players had solid cases for being selected as well so it wouldn’t have been surprising if someone like Juan Soto had been selected instead.

Hopefully this helps give Tatis a bounce in his step and he starts to rebound and play like he did earlier in the season and last night against Texas when he was driving runs and setting the table in the leadoff spot.