After this weekend’s sweep by the Dodgers, some musings on the Padres’ recent play:
- Going into this 13-game stretch against the Giants and Dodgers, I was expecting 3-3 for the first 6 games so they ended where I figured (I was thinking 2-1 versus the Giants and 1-2 versus the Dodgers). Of course, after sweeping the Giants and leading the division by 1 game as the Dodgers got swept by the Angels, expectations were higher to at least win one if not two games against the Dodgers. So a big letdown with how it played out.
- When Robert Suarez started warming up to possibly pitch in the bottom of the 8th inning today, I actually thought that Mike Shildt was starting to turn a new leaf and have Mason Miller close but then I realized the 2-3-4 hitters were coming up and he wanted his “best” reliever to face them. Shildt to his credit does have relievers come in different non-standard times (like Jason Adam coming in the 5th or 6th inning when the opposing team’s best hitters are coming up and that could change the game right there) but his insistence on Suarez as the “best” reliever and the closer doesn’t make sense after acquiring Miller. How many other teams do you know have a setup guy who throws harder and has a better “secondary” pitch (Miller considers his slider his best pitch) than their closer? Even though Suarez currently leads MLB with 33 saves, we’ve seen Suarez’s fastball get hit often by power hitters. So of course, Mookie Betts hits a home run today to give the Dodgers the lead right after the Padres had fought back to tie it up and it ends up being the game-winning hit to close out the sweep.
- I do get the Padres go as the top of the order goes and the top of order (Tatis, Arraez and Machado) has been struggling for some time now and this series against the Dodgers showed it even more. I like the lineup of alternating righties and lefties so if we’re not going to move Manny or Tatis now, then we have to do something about Arraez who’s not providing value at the 2 hole especially if the other two guys are struggling too.
I like having Tatis first even though his slug has pretty much disappeared, he’s still getting on base at a high clip (since the All Star Break his OBP is .392), has the speed potential on the bases and will drive in the bottom of the lineup more often than other guys. As well, if we’re not going to move Manny down since he was carrying the team before, prefers hitting in the 3 spot and it would cause some friction, then Arraez is the best option to change, especially when you consider:
- And then you have a player newly acquired who was an all star this year, has an OPS of .819, can play 1st (his defensive runs saved is 4 and outs above average is 6 at 1B compared to Arraez’s DRS of 1 and OAA of -6) and whose overall numbers are just better:
https://stathead.com/tiny/CLUbp
- So it really doesn’t make any sense why O’Hearn isn’t playing every day and instead joins Sheets on the bench as the odd men out when a lefty is the starting pitcher. With the current team, this instead would be a better lineup:
- Tatis RF (R)
- O’Hearn 1B (L)
- Machado 3B (R)
- Sheets DH (L)
- Laureano LF (R)
- Merrill CF (L)
- Bogaerts SS (R)
- Cronenworth 2B (L)
- Fermin C (R)
or - Tatis RF (R)
- O’Hearn 1B (L)
- Machado 3B (R)
- Merrill CF (L)
- Laureano LF (R)
- Arraez DH (L)
- Bogaerts SS (R)
- Cronenworth 2B (L)
- Fermin C (R)
In either lineup, as we seen with Cronenworth being moved down to 8th, moving guys like Bogaerts, Merrill or Arraez lengthens the lineup and takes some of the pressure off of them so they don’t have to be in such high leverage situations so often. Whether or not Shildt actually does this is another thing as it wouldn’t be surprising for him to continue to roll out the same lineup as he’s been doing for most of the season despite the lineup’s struggles.
A KNOW B 
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