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4th of July Musings

Posted on by Paul

With an off day yesterday and a 10-game homestand starting before the all star break, some thoughts on the current state of the Padres:

  • The Padres have a need for another batter, ideally a right handed hitter, that can either DH or play left field. A righty would be a good complement to Gavin Sheets to play the two positions.
  • There’s a need for a hitting catcher though I do get also about the calling the game part. Both Elias Diaz and Martin Maldonado are doing a good job of handling the pitching staff considering three young guys who were supposed to battle it out for the 5th spot (Randy Vasquez, Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert) are all being called to pitch in the rotation right now and have held up their end. But when you see stats like this, it’s hard not to see such a large hole in the lineup.
  • You can never have enough starting pitching so you hope that Yu Darvish and Michael King are able to come back so you then have them along with the above three young guys and Nick Pivetta and Dylan Cease (who you hope will have more good days than what he’s been doing this year).

It seems like the Padres best option to deal for any hitting will be to deal one of their relievers and teams will be more interested in guys like Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon who still have some control (Morejon has one more year while Estrada still has four). Kind of like how the Padres dealt for Jason Adam and Bryan Hoeing last year who both still have control. I also see this as part of why the Padres have been promoting many young relievers recently (like Eduarniel Nunez) to get a feel for how they handle the big league level if they were to deal one of the current relievers on the major league roster.

Ideally the Padres would deal Robert Suarez. Besides his peripherals not being good since June 1 (it makes me nervous when I see him come out to close), he’s most likely to opt out at the end of the year. Considering how good he was earlier in the year (which is similar to last season where he had the rut in August and early September and then bounced back and pitched fine in the playoffs), it could also be due to overuse as the more often he pitches, the more he’s just throwing hard fastballs down the middle with no movement.

It makes me think about how Milwaukee dealt Josh Hader and Devin Williams before they became free agents and that makes the most sense to me so the Padres can get something for him and then elevate Adam or Morejon or do a closer by committee.

Because realistically it’s highly unlikely AJ Preller will sell no matter where the team is in four weeks. The years where the Padres were on the outside with a small chance to make the playoff (2015 and 2023), he didn’t sell even though it made more sense to. So even if he doesn’t make any major moves (because the prospect system isn’t as good as it was in years past), I don’t see him selling either and instead making some minor moves.

Washington Nationals Monday Musings

Posted on by Paul

With the Washington Nationals in town for a three-game series and how well the former Padres players in the Juan Soto trade on the Nationals’ active MLB roster are doing, it’s fun to look back at the What If? had the Padres kept those players and not made the trade.

Here are their stats as of today:

CJ Abrams: 2.7 bWAR, .278/.351/.484 (.835 OPS), 11 HR, 15 SB

James Wood: 3.5 bWAR, .278/.375/.560 (.935 OPS), 21 HR, 57 RBI

MacKenzie Gore: 2.8 bWAR, 3.19 ERA, 3-7 W-L, 123 SOs (leads the league)

Robert Hassell III was called up on May 20, 2025 for the first time and in 79 plate appearances has a slash line of .218/.228/.269 (.497 OPS) while Jarlin Susana is still in the minors.

Of course if the Padres don’t make the trade, there’s always the daisy chain effect as Jackson Merrill might not be here (he might have been traded instead for another player that AJ Preller felt could put the team over the top), they sign or trade differently because of who they have here and other gaps (such as not signing Xander Bogaerts with Abrams as SS), etc. But let’s for fun, assume only the trades directly affected by Juan Soto (such as the trades to get Michael King and lead to getting Dylan Cease) don’t happen, you end up with a starting lineup and pitching rotation of:

Tatis RF
Arraez 1B
Machado 3B
Wood LF
Sheets DH
Merrill CF
Cronenworth/Iglesias 2B
Diaz/Maldonaldo C
Abrams SS

Pivetta
Gore
Bergert
Kolek
Another starter with Darvish and Musgrove on the IL

The first thing that sticks out is how this lineup skews really lefty with six left-handed hitters. There’s already that challenge with Merrill, Sheets, Cronenworth in the middle of the lineup (and Arraez if you want to switch it with yesterday’s lineup where Merrill batted second and Arraez fourth) so this really makes it even more so.

The other thing is the length of this lineup as really the only glaring hole is the catcher position. But having solid players from 1-7 and 9 really goes with the Padres motto of passing the baton along the lineup and how some other teams have that length where every batter is a challenge.

Starting pitching seems to be more of an issue with this lineup; I get it’s been an issue this year with the injuries to Darvish and King but you have to give credit to Vasquez, Kolek and Bergert for how well they’ve been pitching considering being young guys at the back of the rotation.

Besides the fact that the surrounded players signed/traded would be different because of a different approach to roster construction with having these guys around as mentioned above, the other thing is if the Padres don’t make this trade, they don’t get to the NLCS in 2022 or win 93 games in 2024 (since they picked up Michael King and Dylan Cease as a result of trading Soto to the Yankees after the 2023 season).

The ultimate goal is to win the World Series but considering the lack of success in the Padres history, they had legitimate teams these past few seasons to make the playoffs and do something which is what you want as a fan.

So would I still do the trade in hindsight? Yes, because it’s still allowed the team to be competitive since then. Now if the Padres didn’t get anything for Juan Soto when they felt they couldn’t re-sign him, had their payroll/budget concerns after Peter Seidler’s passing and didn’t end up with King, Cease and Vasquez that made them competitive last year and again this year, then I’d have a different opinion.

Tuesday Night Musings

Posted on by Paul

Musings halfway through the second series with the Dodgers after dropping 4 of the first 5 games to them:

  • Xander Bogaerts batting in the middle of the lineup continues to kill the Padres scoring opportunities. Two times he had two runners on and both times he grounded into double plays. I previously mentioned about moving Xander down and at that time Sheets hadn’t emerged the way he has, which is even another reason to move him down. I get it that Jackson Merrill is out right now but it doesn’t mean that Xander has to be the one to move up. For a while Shildt seemed to have moved Xander down to 6th in the lineup but now he’s right back in the middle of the lineup where he can do damage or is more often the case do what he did tonight.
  • Nice to see local guy Trenton Brooks hit a two-run home run. It’s sad but he already has contributed more in that one at bat than the other call ups this year including Luis Campusano and Connie Joe. Might as well give him some run with Merrill out and considering the major hole at left field.

The Padres can be frustrating to watch, especially considering the struggles the past week against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Nevertheless I’ll be watching against tomorrow and be at Petco Park on Friday when the team returns home.

Mile High Musings

Posted on by Paul

Thoughts after the weekend series with the Colorado Rockies in Denver:

  • After beating the Rockies 21-0 yesterday, on one hand you had to feel like it was setting up for a sweep with Nick Pivetta on the mound for the Padres and German Marquez on the mound for the Rockies. Pivetta has been the Padres’ best starting pitcher this year and Marquez hadn’t won yet (he was 0-6 with a 9.90 ERA going into the game) and was roughed up the last time the Padres faced him (five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings).
  • But on the other hand, you saw that Pivetta had an 18.90 era in three starts in Coors Field and even this season was much better at home (1.42 ERA at home versus 3.00 ERA on the road). As well the Padres hadn’t swept a series in Colorado since 2011 and then Jackson Merrill was a last-minute scratch with an illness.
  • That was not to mention Bud Black getting the typical backing of the front office that usually happens right before the person is fired.

So of course, Pivetta has another tough outing, Marquez pitches lights out like he has against the Padres in past years and the Rockies win easily 9-3. And then after the game Bud Black is fired which is tough considering the team he’s been giving. I’m not sure how many other managers would have won much more with the players he had.

Considering the state of the Rockies you would have hoped for a sweep like the Padres did earlier this year but going 6-3 on this road trip is something you take any day and would have been happy before the trip started.

The one tradeoff with the more balanced schedule is these road trips seem even longer because the team has to travel to so many different cities now but I still prefer this over the previous schedule. It’s a better barometer of teams when they’ve all played each other; if there was a way to do a true balanced schedule, I’d be all for it (that’s a story for another day).

Yankee Series Takeaways

Posted on by Paul

Some quick takeaways from the series

  • First game Dylan Cease looked dominant this season, hopefully it is an elbow cramp like he says and you tip your cap to Cody Bellinger for the home run he hit on the 0-2 high fastball.
  • Jason Adam has been struggling a little bit lately (has given up runs in three out of his last seven outings) but all relief pitchers have their ruts. The leadoff walk was killer (isn’t it usually?) and him going changeup to Grisham again right after Grisham hammered his previous pitch that was a changeup just foul down the line was a little surprising. You figure he would mix it up because that’s what Grisham is sitting on.
  • The 10th inning played out the way teams should attack the Padres in this situation. With the ghost runner on second and Fernando Tatis Jr. leading off, getting him to strike out and not move the runner (granted Brandon Lockridge would just steal third when Luis Arraez was up next so it ended up being the same thing as a sacrifice) you can then pitch around Arraez to bring up Manny Machado.
    • Manny is prone to hitting into double plays or striking out which in this case he struck out for the second out.
    • You then have Jackson Merrill up so you don’t give him anything good to hit and the Yankees pitched him inside and ended up hitting him.
    • Which then leads to Xander Bogaerts being up to bat, who also has a propensity for hitting ground balls or striking out and he did strike out.
  • Then in the bottom of the 10th, the Yankees sacrificed the runner to third and the next guy hit a sacrifice fly to win the game.
  • It’s unfortunate but it would seem so simple to score in that case with a ghost runner on and the top of your lineup but the Padres showed why they can have scoring issues with how their lineup is and guys like Manny and Xander who tend to strike out or ground out a lot killing many scoring opportunities. Of course, Xander is getting paid to produce but at some point you have to really look at other options (I would have already moved him down) for hitting cleanup or fifth regardless of how much he’s getting paid.

Yankees 10 Run Inning

Posted on by Paul

The day after the great comeback, the Padres had a game unravel in the 7th inning with Adrian Morejon and Wandy Peralta combining to give up 10 runs after the Padres had taken a 3-2 lead in the top of the 7th with a 2-out double by Fernando Tatis Jr.

I get why Morejon was the option here after Estrada had pitched the past two games so you’re hoping he gets through the inning to turn it over to Jason Adam and Robert Suarez since Adam didn’t pitch yesterday and Suarez could go again.

But when Morejon got in trouble by giving up a double, single and single to the first three batters to tie the game up, I don’t get why you’re not already trying to stall and pull him already. He obviously didn’t have it today so leaving him in there to get one out (which only happened because of a bunt pop up) and then walking Goldschimdt isn’t giving the next pitcher a great situation to come into with bases loaded, one out and a tied game.

And then on top of that, bringing in Wandy Peralta in such a high-leverage situation. I get it, it’s early in the season so you don’t want to keep doing the multi-inning approach with Adam or Suarez (like April 20th against the Astros when Adam went 1 2/3 innings and I was thinking that he and Suarez might each do four outs) but do we have to keep forcing the situational matchups and go lefty on lefty with Trent Grisham do up next?

Why not go to other relievers who have shown to be more reliable such as Alek Jacob who was rested and hadn’t pitched in three days? The bad thing about Mike Shildt having his players’ backs is he seems to stick with them too long even when everyone else knows it’s not a recipe for success such as using Peralta in a high-leverage situation. I’m hoping these things will start to become clearer sooner rather than later so we don’t have situations like this that seem obvious happen again.

Rainy Comeback

Posted on by Paul

After the third rain delay in four road games on the trip (which even for me watching at home throws off the schedule as I try watching the game and then doing other things such as going to the SDFC game on Saturday night), tonight’s game looked like one of those dog day games that gets away from you.

Lefty on the mound, two rain delays, Nick Pivetta not having his best stuff (not to mention tipping his pitches) and then being down 3-0 in the top of the 8th wasn’t looking too promising.

But after Fernando Tatis Jr and Mike Shildt were ejected (Tatis’ first career MLB ejection), Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts both came through with clutch two-out hits to each drive in two runs and give the Padres their first lead 4-3.

Ironically, the strike two call on a pitch low in the zone that Tatis and Shildt argued about was a strike but home plate umpire Adrian Johnson’s low strike call had been pretty inconsistent all night for both teams. Sometimes he was calling them a strike, other times not as on a 3-2 count to Jorbit Vivas in the 3rd inning, a pitch from Nick Pivetta at the bottom of the zone was called a ball. That lead to a walk and of course the next batter Trent Grisham hit a two-run home run.

The inconsistency of it (Robert Suarez actually benefited in the 9th on a pitch low in the zone called a strike) is what drives players and managers crazy so I get why Tatis was upset (he had several low strike calls in his four at bats) and Mike Shildt was going to defend his player no matter, that’s why his players love him and play so hard for him.

In this case Manny and Xander came through to pick the team up and lead to an impressive 4-3 comeback victory. I’ve mentioned before about not having Manny and Xander bat back to back in the 3-4 hole since it leads to too many strikeouts and double plays so credit to both players for coming through in clutch situations today.

That’s really the idea with having a top-heavy team with Tatis, Arraez, Manny, Xander, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth, the idea being that you have enough star power that even when one or two players are in a slump (and all baseball players go through slumps with how difficult the sport is), that the other ones can pick them up.

These past two games are an example as Tatis has gone 0-9 but with Xander stepping up the past two games, the Padres have won both. Of course, in the past we’ve seen it where if Tatis is struggling, the other guys aren’t coming through or struggling themselves, especially with Manny and Xander 3-4. So to see this happening today is what we’re expecting and why Xander was brought here at $25+ million a year and something we hope to see more of the rest of the season.

Ending the Season Series with the Cubs

Posted on by Paul

Good way to end the season series with the Chicago Cubs tied 3-3 as you never know how important this can be at the end of the season and making the playoffs. It’s always funny how the MLB schedule is to where you face a team twice in the first month and then don’t see them again until possibly the playoffs.

It was only two years ago when the Padres finished two games out of the playoffs (don’t get me wrong that 2023 team had a whole bunch of other problems) and finished 6-7 against Arizona that year, including losing 3 out of 4 in August to end the season series, as well as 3-4 against the Cubs, both teams with better records than them that year (Arizona would get the final playoff spot). So their path to the playoffs was even more difficult since they lost the season series to the two teams right above them as they tried making the late run.

So when it comes down to the end and playoff tiebreakers, with the 4-2 win today over the Cubs, the Padres won’t lose that tiebreaker if they happen to be in the playoff hunt and finish tied with the Cubs. I know it’s way early but that’s where these types of games count.

That’s why it doesn’t make sense to me with having Manny and Xander bat 3-4 even if it’s a lefty starting pitcher on the mound as Mike Shildt continues to do last night and today. Yesterday’s 2-1 loss was a golden opportunity to win considering Shota Imanaga was on the mound for the Cubs and the Padres pitching was able to go toe to toe for 9 innings. Not many times where you can win a low-scoring game against their ace pitcher, so it compounds it when you have Manny and Xander come up with the bases loaded and 1 out and end up getting no runs like what happened in the bottom of the third. If one of them comes through (or someone else batting in the lineup between them), the game may break wide open like what happened in Shota’s last start against the Rangers where he goes only 76 pitches in 5 innings giving up 5 earned runs.

And then there’s the relievers he keeps using in situations that aren’t the best. I figured the way he’s been using Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui earlier this season where the team had comfortable leads, was way behind or when it’s earlier in the game like the 5th or 6th inning would be how he would continue to use them based on their track record last year. There’s a big need in those situations (we can only remember Enyel De Los Santos last year and how often he would blow big leads or make the deficit even larger) but the past two days have left me scratching my head.

Yesterday putting Matsui in the 10th inning with the ghost runner on, I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who had a bad feeling about it. Credit to Matsui for getting out of the inning with just the one unearned run after he gave up the leadoff triple to Nico Hoerner to score the ghost runner and then getting the next three guys out (short flyout and two strikeouts) but the damage was already done.

And then today he pulled Pivetta after 91 pitches and 6 innings, going to Estrada in the 7th which is par for the course in a close game with the bullpen. However in the 8th with Jason Adam down today (understandably after going the past two days), he went to Wandy with a 3-1 lead after the Padres added on one run in the bottom of the 7th and again I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who was a little worried. Wandy proceeds to give up a home run to Pete Crow-Armstrong to make 3-2 and then give up a 2 out double to Ian Happ bringing red hot Kyle Tucker up to bat as the go ahead run. He did end up striking out Tucker but way too close for comfort.

Shildt does get the most out of his team (feels like the team would run through a wall for him like the St. Louis Cardinals postgame speech) so I’m sure that’s part of it. But when you see the same guys not coming through in the same situations over and over again, at some point you have to realize that’s not the best situation for them.

Sweeping the Rockies

Posted on by Paul

As they always say baseball is a long season as it was only five days ago after game two of the Athletics series last Tuesday April 8 that it was all doom and gloom as Jackson Merrill was put on the IL that morning and then both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth would leave the game early with injuries.

This is not to mention the run of shaky starting pitching that started with the Chicago Cubs series and culminated with Cease giving up 9 runs in the loss that Tuesday night.

But with a day game the next day missing Tatis, Cronenworth and Merrill, the team came through as Vasquez did what was needed (5 innings of 1 run ball and turning it over to the high-leverage arms) and the lineup was able to piece together enough runs for a 2-1 win.

Of course, coming home to the Colorado Rockies for any team is usually a good thing but we know how the Padres have struggled against the Rockies recently (31-33 from 2021-2024), not to mention that Jake was put on the IL Friday morning and is expected to miss something with a rib fracture.

But maybe not having Charlie Blackmon anymore helped as the Padres did several things in this series worth highlighting:

As they always say baseball is a long season but it’s been exciting seeing what the Padres have done so far to start this season.

First Road Series in the Windy City

Posted on by Paul

After a great top of the 1st inning to take a 3-0, you had to feel this game would be different in a good way from the first two games of the series when the offense could only score a run in each game.

It was definitely different but in a wild way as things quickly unraveled in the bottom of the inning when Kyle Hart had no control, Logan Gillaspie came in and balked in two runs and then gave up a two run homer in the 2nd. This looked like one of those long getaway days already being down 7-3 heading into the top of the 3rd.

But credit to Logan Gillaspie for pitching a total of 4 innings and the rest of the bullpen (Morejon, Estrada, Adam and Suarez) all holding it down from there as the Cubs wouldn’t score again after that homer in the 2nd. The Padres were able to chip away and take the lead in the 9th, even if it was on an error by Justin Turner at 1st that should have been an inning-ending double play.

Great comeback win and reminiscent of what last year’s team did where it always battled and as Mike Shildt likes to call them the “grit squad”. It takes the pitching to hold up as it did today to make the comeback and you can’t say enough good things about what they were able to do as the offense had many chances (3 for 16 with RISP oof) and could have come back many times earlier in the game.

A couple of things:

  • I still don’t know what the two balks are that Gillaspie did in the 1st inning. These are the times it would be good for the ump to get on the mic to explain what they’re doing.
  • Regardless of a righty or lefty pitcher, seems like the top of the lineup should stay the way it was today:
    1. Tatis
    2. Arraez
    3. Machado
    4. Merrill
    5. Cronenworth
    6. Bogaerts

I can see switching Cronenworth and Bogaerts so it alternates right-left and I get the concerns about Cronenworth against lefties but having Machado and Bogaerts back to back has lead to many wasted scoring opportunities where guys are on 1st and 2nd and no outs and then we end up with 3 outs and no runs (strikeouts, double plays, etc).

I see having Merrill in between as a way to split up Machado and Bogaerts both because of them being righties (having Merrill in between gives the pitcher a different look from the other side), Merrill’s speed to beat out ground balls (in reality both Machado and Bogaerts aren’t quick so any ground balls have a high chance for a double plays) and Merrill has shown a big knack for being clutch in his 1+ year in the majors so far.

So I would keep them alternating regardless of who the pitcher is. Merrill has shown enough against lefties where he doesn’t need to be moved down in the lineup just because its a lefty. As far as the rest of the lineup, Sheets has been pretty productive but holding out comment to see how the others like Heyward, Gurriel and the catchers do until we get a little further into the season.