Trade Deadline 2026 Musings

With the trade deadline passing yesterday, some musings on the moves the Padres made:

  • The trade for Robbie Ray and Casey Mize (with utility man Gage Workman also part of the Mize trade) adds starting pitching that the team desperately needs. It was fun seeing the “pitching chaos” the past couple of weeks with previous starting pitchers like Griffin Canning, Randy Vasquez, JP Sears and German Marquez doing different bulk inning roles throughout the game (Marquez pitching a 5 inning save was something that hadn’t been done in franchise history since the first season in 1969). However, you can’t really expect that to continue for 2 months especially when you’re banking on Michael King and Walker Buehler as the two true “starters” since both have been liable to big blowup innings this year that require the bullpen to come in and cover some innings.
  • This is even more so needed with how uncertain it is with Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta coming back (especially after Pivetta left his rehab start early today with elbow tightness). I don’t think you can fully count on either considering Musgrove has been out for nearly 2 years and Pivetta is dealing with a tricky elbow issue so I would consider anything you get out of them a bonus. So adding two legit starting pitchers with the Padres bullpen gives them a good pitching staff for the rest of the season.
  • I do think the Padres gave up a little too much in terms of giving up Joniel Hernandez and Kash Mayfield as part of the trades for Ray and Mize. Mayfield since he’s the Padres #2 prospect (and best pitching prospect) and Hernandez because he’s a 17-year-old shortstop they just signed as the top prospect for $1.4 million in their international signing period earlier this year. I get that Mayfield’s numbers haven’t been great this year and Hernandez is like a lottery ticket since he’s still young and far away but considering how barren the Padres farm system is and that they’re only getting these guys for rentals, I would hope the Padres can start getting more young guys through the system (like Jackson Merrill) to continually help each year and balance out the Padres bloated payroll. I don’t think it’s realistic even with the impending sale to all of a sudden expect the Padres to spend substantially more considering they have a top ten payroll in both CBT and actual cash spent and will be paying the tax this year. Would be great to get rid of some of these big contracts that aren’t worth what they’re getting paid but no one will take on those deals without prospects or the Padres eating a large portion of the contract which then leads us back to the same problem. A more balanced team would help the Padres from being so top-heavy and dependent on these highly paid players as we saw them struggle early this year and most of last year.
  • The offense has been better since the beginning of June and it still goes back to the offense will go based on how the star players go and what I mentioned with being so top-heavy. It is how the team is constructed so can’t do anything about this season. We saw last year with the trade deadline additions of Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano and Freddy Fermin, that the offense still struggled towards the end of the year and into the NL Wild Card series against the Cubs as the top of the lineup (Fernando Tatis Jr, Luis Arraez and Manny Machado) struggled badly. So while it would have been nice to add another bat, the offense will really go based on how the current star batters go, like we saw tonight. I don’t remember the last time Tatis, Machado, Merrill and Xander Bogaerts all got hits in the 1st inning to drive in three runs, especially against a pitcher like Eduardo Rodriguez who has been having a great season (even if the Padres hit well against him last year).

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